Papers by Aminjonov Farkhod
Journal of European Security and Defense Issues, 2025
Arabian Gulf countries, as major net hydrocarbon supplying the energy that fuels socioeconomic gr... more Arabian Gulf countries, as major net hydrocarbon supplying the energy that fuels socioeconomic growth and reinforces global energy security. Now, the region — also known as the Persian Gulf — is emerging beyond its traditional role of key player in the fossil fuel-dominated world into a potential driver of global energy transition. To reflect these shifts in their energy strategies, Gulf states have developed policies that evolve around three orders of energy interest. Their default interest is to reinforce the predominance of fossil fuels in the global energy system. Their second is to maximize the space for hydrocarbons while still being part of climate solutions. The third is to align with mainstream policies driving the global transition. While these orders of energy interest may appear mutually exclusive, Gulf nations are effectively advancing various vectors of engagement in pursuit of seemingly divergent energy objectives. In an environment of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, Gulf states are attempting to exercise a greater degree of agency in their foreign policies to address energy security risks and manage the global energy transition. Conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East have accelerated the transition away from fossil fuel-based energy systems and, to some extent, altered global energy supply dynamics, but these developments are unlikely to trigger major shifts in the Gulf’s strategic energy priorities, which are now focused on the Indo-Pacific market. However, the Gulf ’s current energy strategies will have a significant impact on shaping strategic partnerships with European nations.
Hong Kong: KAS RECAP, 2022
Asia, being the world’s biggest emitter, is expected to make a significant contribution to climat... more Asia, being the world’s biggest emitter, is expected to make a significant contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. As energy accounts for about two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions, energy transition is often placed at the core of the region’s response to climate change — reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emissions from fossil fuels. There is a difference between fossil fuels as they are versus as they could be. The study derives from the understanding that the ultimate goal of sustainable development is not to entirely exclude fossil fuels, which would be a technologically, financially and politically difficult task to accomplish in the foreseeable future, but to turn them into part of the solution to the problem. Coal is the dirtiest of fossil fuels and is set for rapid replacement with less environmentally damaging sources of energy. But the world has not yet found a good substitute for oil and gas in terms of its availability and fitness for purpose. This chapter provides a comprehensive cross regional comparative analysis of East Asian, Southeast Asian, South Asian and Central Asian countries’ decarbonisation strategies and the role of the oil and gas companies in accelerating the transition towards a more sustainable future. Pathways for a low-carbon future presented in this chapter can become an integral part of the Asian countries’ decarbonisation strategies.
Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, 2023
This paper examines the interdependence between the Gulf states and the Indo-Pacific in the conte... more This paper examines the interdependence between the Gulf states and the Indo-Pacific in the context of the global energy transition away- from a fossil-based energy system. Instead of ending this energy interdependence, we argue that the energy presents opportunities for the Gulf states to transition, address, and manage energy governance issues with the Indo-Pacific. Applying a framework with four stylized choices comprising rule-breaking, taking, promoting, and shaping, we find evidence that the Gulf states have evolved away from binary choices of rejecting or accepting the rules of global energy governance. Instead, some of them are becoming more adept at rule promoting and rule shaping, which, respectively, strengthen and contest but do not undo the energy transition status quo.
Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2023
The so-called ‘division of labor’, in which Russia dominated politics and security domains, while... more The so-called ‘division of labor’, in which Russia dominated politics and security domains, while China has primarily engaged in expanding economic trade and connectivity, is no longer entirely relevant to the Central Asian context. Central Asian states are not and have never claimed to be equals to their larger neighbors—Russia and China. Yet, changing security dynamics and growing economic vulnerabilities force Central Asian states to reconsider the nature of relations with their neighbors, in which they are trying to exercise a greater degree of agency. This section will highlight key takeaways from the discussions around the publication of a Konrad Adenauer Stiftung report titled “China’s Security and Military Cooperation in Central Asia and Its Relevance to Europe”, presented at a closed-door KAS-ENC roundtable in June 2022 in Brussels.
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2021
In working towards the goal of achieving energy security, the countries of Central Asia are facin... more In working towards the goal of achieving energy security, the countries of Central Asia are facing similar challenges – mountain and desert terrain that can impede access to the region’s energy resources, for example, inadequate capacity and outdated infrastructure that impose limits on production and efficiency. Growing energy demand in winter and variations in supply are causing seasonal gaps in service across the region, and many communities and households in remote areas remain unconnected to the power grid. In addition, the countries in the region have all pledged to do their part in reducing the emissions that cause climate change. This study, Advancing Energy Security in Central Asia, suggests that the development of a strategy for achieving energy security in the region must consider each of these concerns. This report focuses on the electricity sector, which is particularly vulnerable to challenges such as weak infrastructure and climate change and which has significant social impacts on the whole region. The countries’ shared challenges, their history of cooperation on energy and the complementary nature of their national energy needs and strengths provide a foundation for mutually beneficial regional cooperation.
Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2022
Central Asia is a key pillar of China’s heavily promoted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although... more Central Asia is a key pillar of China’s heavily promoted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although the region’s leaders are supportive of the Chinese initiative, they have occasionally and selectively resisted any deepening of their asymmetrical relations with China, which has grown even faster with Beijing’s attempts to expand its military presence in the region. The so-called ‘division of labour’, in which Russia dominated politics and security while China took responsibility for economic trade and connectivity, is no longer fully relevant to the Chinese engagement with local actors. Central Asian countries are not the equals of China, but neither are they mere policy-takers. Yet, as smaller nations, Central Asian states may not be able to manage, balance, bandwagon and negotiate their defence and military relations with China without effective engagement with other external powers. The strategic objectives of EU and NATO1 in reaching out to Central Asian states whose stability and security are linked to wider Euro-Atlantic security, as stated in NATO’s policy, make them integral to the security and defence dynamics in the region. The Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022 will likely emphasise the regions’ strategic importance, given its geographic location and due to its natural resources, which include oil, gas and rare earths.
Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting, 2020
Key Points: The role of renewable energy must expand throughout Central Asia. Where to start and ... more Key Points: The role of renewable energy must expand throughout Central Asia. Where to start and how to accelerate the transition process is still a pressing issue, however. This policy brief provides a detailed analysis of the priorities that should inform this transition. • There would be no need to accelerate the transition to renewable energy if all five Central Asian states embraced regional energy cooperation and worked to revitalize the Unified Energy System of Central Asia, an infrastructure that once operated efficiently. • Government support via guaranteed purchases (the Settlement and Financial Center to purchase clean electricity in case of Kazakhstan) might drive the development of renewable energy in its early stages, but significant diversification of energy sources will require the participation of all stakeholders, including the state, private sector, and individual consumers. • Uzbekistan is considering various options to provide consumers with clean, uninterrupted energy, though their viability will remain uncertain until Uzbekistan builds reliable relationships with foreign investors. There is not a single precedent for successful cooperation so far. • It is vital not to underestimate the importance of off-grid wind and solar farms, rooftop solar panels, and small and mini hydroelectric power plants in providing electricity to remote areas. • Climate change that disrupts the hydrological cycle mainly in upstream Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan may limit access to the drainage required for exploiting hydropower potential. It is therefore important to initiate small-scale hydropower projects now. • Priority should be given to renewable energy projects with thorough technical and environmental assessments, as the efficiency coefficient of any renewable energy source is directly related to comprehensive research.
Journal of Contemporary China, 2022
Central Asia and China enjoy a mutually beneficial, albeit hugely asymmetrical, relationship. Nev... more Central Asia and China enjoy a mutually beneficial, albeit hugely asymmetrical, relationship. Nevertheless, leaders in Central Asia have occasionally and selectively resisted a broadening and deepening of their relations with China. Framed by a ‘hedging’ foreign policy approach, this article suggests that the practice of hedging arises not just from structural and exogenous conditions but is also facilitated by domestic considerations peculiar to each Central Asian state. The claim here is not that leaders in Central Asia are effective or proficient hedgers; rather, some are attempting to use hedging as part of their statecraft. The varying ability of leaders in Central Asia to hedge, manage, and negotiate their relations with China is often under-appreciated but deserves to be highlighted as an evolving approach.
This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved... more This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved in Central Asia are implemented within the territories of individual countries and thus are still poorly linked with each other. However, these internal transport routes are expected to eventually form the basis of a new cross-regional network within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Smaller scale road construction and rehabilitation projects create linkages connecting China across Central Asia to South Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the Middle East.
This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved... more This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved in Central Asia are implemented within the territories of individual countries and thus are still poorly linked with each other. However, these internal transport routes are expected to eventually form the basis of a new cross-regional network within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Smaller scale road construction and rehabilitation projects create linkages connecting China across Central Asia to South Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the Middle East.
BRI in Central Asia: Overview of Chinese Projects
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
BRI in Central Asia: Overview of Chinese Projects
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kaz... more This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also provides data on installed and planned solar power capacity in these countries.
This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kaz... more This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also provides data on installed and planned solar power capacity in these countries.
This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved... more This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved in Central Asia are implemented within the territories of individual countries and thus are still poorly linked with each other. However, these internal transport routes are expected to eventually form the basis of a new cross-regional network within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Smaller scale road construction and rehabilitation projects create linkages connecting China across Central Asia to South Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the Middle East.
BRI in Central Asia: Industrial Projects
China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise si... more China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise since the 1990s. However, this data article shows the recent expansion of Chinese investment also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, China has expanded its engagement in the development of local industries in larger countries as well. The projects in Kazakhstan are the largest in terms of the number and size of investments. China has substantially increased the number of industrial projects in Uzbekistan, yet the evidence shows that the costs of the projects are small in scale.
BRI in Central Asia: Industrial Projects
China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise si... more China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise since the 1990s. However, this data article shows the recent expansion of Chinese investment also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, China has expanded its engagement in the development of local industries in larger countries as well. The projects in Kazakhstan are the largest in terms of the number and size of investments. China has substantially increased the number of industrial projects in Uzbekistan, yet the evidence shows that the costs of the projects are small in scale.
BRI in Central Asia: Overview of Chinese Projects
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kaz... more This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also provides data on installed and planned solar power capacity in these countries.
BRI in Central Asia: Industrial Projects
China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise si... more China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise since the 1990s. However, this data article shows the recent expansion of Chinese investment also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, China has expanded its engagement in the development of local industries in larger countries as well. The projects in Kazakhstan are the largest in terms of the number and size of investments. China has substantially increased the number of industrial projects in Uzbekistan, yet the evidence shows that the costs of the projects are small in scale.
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Papers by Aminjonov Farkhod