Papers by Arun Bhakta Shrestha
River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and ... more River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever-increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi-and inter-disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of "governance, policy, and sustainable solutions", "socioeconomic processes and livelihoods", and "integrated Earth System processes". Raising awareness of these cutting-edge ORR ET AL.
and based in Kathmandu, Nepal. Globalisation and climate change have an increasing influence on t... more and based in Kathmandu, Nepal. Globalisation and climate change have an increasing influence on the stability of fragile mountain ecosystems and the livelihoods of mountain people. ICIMOD aims to assist mountain people to understand these changes, adapt to them, and make the most of new opportunities, while addressing upstream-downstream issues. We support regional transboundary programmes through partnership with regional partner institutions, facilitate the exchange of experience, and serve as a regional knowledge hub. We strengthen networking among regional and global centres of excellence. Overall, we are working to develop an economically and environmentally sound mountain ecosystem to improve the living standards of mountain populations and to sustain vital ecosystem services for the billions of people living downstream -now, and for the future. ICIMOD gratefully acknowledges the support of its core donors: the Governments of Afghanistan,
Mountains are among the most fragile environments on Earth. They are also rich repositories of bi... more Mountains are among the most fragile environments on Earth. They are also rich repositories of biodiversity and water and providers of ecosystem goods and services on which downstream communities (both regional and global) rely. Mountains are home to some of the world's most threatened and endemic species, as well as to some of the poorest people, who are dependent on the biological resources. Realising the importance of mountains as ecosystems of crucial significance, the Convention on Biological Diversity specifically developed a Programme of Work on Mountain Biodiversity in 2004 aimed at reducing the loss of mountain biological diversity at global, regional, and national levels by 2010. Despite these activities, mountains are still facing enormous pressure from various drivers of global change, including climate change. Under the influence of climate change, mountains are likely to experience wide ranging effects on the environment, natural resources including biodiversity, and socioeconomic conditions. Little is known in detail about the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems to climate change. Intuitively it seems plausible that these regions, where small changes in temperature can turn ice and snow to water, and where extreme slopes lead to rapid changes in climatic zones over small distances, will show marked impacts in terms of biodiversity, water availability, agriculture, and hazards, and that this will have an impact on general human well being. But the nature of the mountains, fragile and poorly accessible landscapes with sparsely scattered settlements and poor infrastructure, means that research and assessment are least just where they are needed most. And this is truest of all for the Hindu Kush-Himalayas, with the highest mountains in the world, situated in developing and least developed countries with few resources for meeting the challenges of developing the detailed scientific knowledge needed to assess the current situation and likely impacts of climate change. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) undertook a series of research activities together with partners in the Eastern Himalayas from 2007 to 2008 to provide a preliminary assessment of the impacts and vulnerability of this region to climate change. Activities included rapid surveys at country level, thematic workshops, interaction with stakeholders at national and regional levels, and development of technical papers by individual experts in collaboration with institutions that synthesised the available information on the region. A summary of the findings of the rapid assessment was published in 2009, and is being followed with a series of publication comprising the main vulnerability synthesis report and technical papers on the thematic topics climate change projections, biodiversity, wetlands, water resources (this publication), hazards, and human wellbeing. Clearly much more, and more precise, information will be needed to corroborate the present findings. Nevertheless, this series of publications highlights the vulnerability of the Eastern Himalayan ecosystems to climate change as a result of their ecological fragility and economic marginality. It is hoped that it will both inform conservation policy at national and regional levels, and stimulate the coordinated research that is urgently needed.
The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 2014
The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is the source of ten large Asian river systems --the Amu Da... more The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is the source of ten large Asian river systems --the Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra (Yarlungtsanpo), Irrawaddy, Salween (Nu), Mekong (Lancang), Yangtse (Jinsha), Yellow River (Huanghe), and Tarim (Dayan), -and provides water, ecosystem services, and the basis for livelihoods to a population of around 0.2 billion people in the region. The river basins of these rivers provide water to 1.3 billion people, a fifth of the world's population. Against this background, a comprehensive river basin program having current focus on the Koshi and Indus basins is launched at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) as a joint scientific endeavour of several participating institutions from four regional countries of the HKH region. The river basin approach aims is to maximize the economic and social benefits derived from water resources in an equitable manner while conserving and, where necessary, restoring freshwater ecosystems, and improved understanding of upstream-downstream linkages. In order to effectively support river basin management satellite based multi sensor and multi temporal data is used to understand diverse river basin related aspects. We present here our recent experiences and results on satellite based rainfall and run off assessments, land use and land cover change and erosion dynamics, multi thematic water vulnerability assessments, space based data streaming systems for dynamic hydrological modelling, and potential applications of agent based models in effective local water use management.
Nature, 2019
This is a PDF file of a peer-reviewed paper that has been accepted for publication. Although uned... more This is a PDF file of a peer-reviewed paper that has been accepted for publication. Although unedited, the content has been subjected to preliminary formatting. Nature is providing this early version of the typeset paper as a service to our authors and readers. The text and figures will undergo copyediting and a proof review before the paper is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2015
, borrowing, substituting and generating (BSG) are the main methods people used to acquire the di... more , borrowing, substituting and generating (BSG) are the main methods people used to acquire the discharge at ungauged stations. Two of the substitution (modelling and disaggregation) methods in combination with the borrowing idea are compared for simulating discharge for the Upper Salween and Mekong River Basin (USMRB). It is seen that with a simple borrowing/ disaggregating method, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) can reach 0.82. The similarity in the seasonal variation pattern is a more important requirement to identify if the two stations are to be considered as having hydrological similarity. From the experience obtained for the USMRB, an upstream station with shorter geographical distance may be more in hydrological similarity than a station in the far downstream. The NSE is quite low when borrowing occurs within the low altitude downstream region. The efficiency will be decreased when we borrow information from several stations which may be not in hydrological similarity.
PLOS ONE, 2016
The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of wat... more The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21 st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
Science (New York, N.Y.), Jan 8, 2016
The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, k... more The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes' induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.
Mountain Research and Development, 2012
Assessment of water resources from remote mountainous catchments plays a crucial role for the dev... more Assessment of water resources from remote mountainous catchments plays a crucial role for the development of rural areas in or in the vicinity of mountain ranges. The scarcity of data, however, prevents the application of standard approaches that are based on data-driven models. The Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya mountain range is a crucial area in terms of water resources, but our understanding of the response of its high-elevation catchments to a changing climate is hindered by lack of hydro-meteorological and cryospheric data. Hydrological modeling is challenging here because internal inconsistencies-such as an underestimation of precipitation input that can be compensated for by an overestimation of meltwater-might be hidden due to the complexity of feedback mechanisms that govern melt and runoff generation in such basins. Data scarcity adds to this difficulty by preventing the application of systematic calibration procedures that would allow identification of the parameter set that could guarantee internal consistency in the simulation of the single hydrological components. In this work, we use simulations from the Hunza River Basin in the Karakoram region obtained with the hydrological model TOPKAPI to quantify the predictive power of discharge and snow-cover data sets, as well as the combination of both. We also show that shortterm measurements of meteorological variables such as radiative fluxes, wind speed, relative humidity, and air temperature from glacio-meteorological experiments are crucial for a correct parameterization of surface melt processes. They enable detailed simulations of the energy fluxes governing glacier-atmosphere interaction and the resulting ablation through energy-balance modeling. These simulations are used to derive calibrated parameters for the simplified snow and glacier routines in TOPKAPI. We demonstrate that such parameters are stable in space and time in similar climatic regions, thus reducing the number of parameters requiring calibration.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2007
The paper presents a catchment modeling approach for remote glacierized Himalayan catchments. The... more The paper presents a catchment modeling approach for remote glacierized Himalayan catchments. The distributed catchment model TAC D , which is widely based on the HBV model, was further developed for the application in highly glacierized catchments on a daily timestep and applied to the Nepalese Himalayan headwater Langtang Khola (360 km 2 ). Low laying reference stations are taken for temperature extrapolation applying a second order polynomial function. Probability based statistical methods enable bridging data gaps in daily precipitation time series and the redistribution of cumulated precipitation sums over the previous days. Snow and ice melt was calculated in a distributed way based on the temperature-index method employing calculated daily potential sunshine durations. Different melting conditions of snow and ice and melting of ice under debris layers were considered. The spatial delineation of hydrological response units was achieved by taking topographic and physiographic information from maps and satellite images into account, and enabled to incorporate process knowledge into the model. Simulation results demonstrated that the model is able to simulate daily discharge for a period of 10 years and point glacier mass balances observed in the research area with an adequate reliability. The simple but robust data pre-processing and modeling approach enables the determination of the components of the water balance of a remote, data scarce catchment with a minimum of input data.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is an independent 'Mountain... more The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is an independent 'Mountain Learning and Knowledge Centre' serving the eight countries of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas -Afghanistan , Bangladesh , Bhutan , China , India , Myanmar , Nepal , and Pakistan -and the global mountain community. Founded in 1983, ICIMOD is based in Kathmandu, Nepal, and brings together a partnership of regional member countries, partner institutions, and donors with a commitment for development action to secure a better future for the people and environment of the extended Himalayan region. ICIMOD's activities are supported by its core programme donors: the governments of Austria,
Springs, Storage Towers, and Water Conservation in the Midhills of Nepal
Impact of Climate Change on Water resources and livelihood in the HKH region
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment
This assessment report establishes the value of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) for the 240 million... more This assessment report establishes the value of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) for the 240 million hill and mountain people across the eight countries sharing the region, for the 1.65 billion people in the river basins downstream, and ultimately for the world. Yet, the region and its people face a range of old and new challenges moving forward, with climate change, globalization, movement of people, conflict and environmental degradation. At the same time, we also see incredible potential to meet these challenges in a sustainable manner
regional knowledge, learning and enabling centre serving the eight regional member countries
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There is a growing recognition that countries of the Indus River Basin face major and changing th... more There is a growing recognition that countries of the Indus River Basin face major and changing threats to their future water security and thus to their peoples’ critical food and energy needs. The recognized feature of the Indus basin is that the downstream areas are highly dependent on water resources originating in the upper catchments mountainous water sources. Indus River has one of highest dependence on melt water recharge and the generally semi-arid basin is naturally water stressed. Climate and socio-economic changes are further aggravating the situation. Therefore there is a need for in-depth study, thorough analysis and the consolidated study of the multiple factors that links climate change, glaciology and runoff hydrology. For this a robust analytical tool to understand the impacts and to plan effective adaptation is essential. A multi-stakeholder initiative undertook investigation of snow and glacier melt runoff modelling of a heavily glacierized sub-basin of upper Indus...
The Upper Indus Basin Network
Current Science, 2021
A Review on the Projected Changes in Climate Over the Indus Basin
Indus River Basin, 2019
The Indus Basin plays a major role in the livelihood and well-being of nearly 268 million people.... more The Indus Basin plays a major role in the livelihood and well-being of nearly 268 million people. The people who live there are either directly or indirectly dependent on the water generated from the snow and glacier melt in the upstream part of the basin. The Indus Basin has become increasingly vulnerable due to climate change, as the basin flow is largely derived from snow and glacier melt, which are sensitive to changes in climate. Current and future water availability in the basin is therefore a critical aspect in the future planning and management of water resources as well as for preparing effective adaptation measures to cope with changing climate scenarios. This chapter reviews the literature on future climate projections in the Indus Basin based on climate modeling of the region. A majority of the studies reviewed project an increase in temperature that is more prominent in the higher altitude under high-emission scenarios. An increase in precipitation is projected in the U...
Glaciers hold about 70% of the earth’s freshwater (UNEP, 2002). They cover about 17% of the total... more Glaciers hold about 70% of the earth’s freshwater (UNEP, 2002). They cover about 17% of the total area of the mountainous Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region of south and eastern Asia (Xu et al., 2007). Ten of the greatest rivers of Asia have their headwaters in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Mountains. Thus, these mountains are often called “the water towers of Asia” (ICIMOD, 2009). Nepal is a small land-locked country in South Asia, occupying an area of 147,181 km 2 and with a population of about 29 million people (The World Bank Group, 2009). A major portion of the country's territory is occupied by mountainous terrain, which contains large numbers of glaciers and glacial lakes, as well as being home to 8 of the 10 highest mountain peaks in the world, including Mount Everest (8848 m). Glaciers cover about 9.6% of Nepal’s total land area (Sharma, 2010; ICIMOD, 2001). These glaciers are huge reservoirs of freshwater in frozen form which maintain the perennial flow of the major rivers o...