Papers by Emin Efecan Aktaş
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Jan 28, 2026
This study pioneers the exploration of inflation's nonlinear role in the nexus between value-adde... more This study pioneers the exploration of inflation's nonlinear role in the nexus between value-added manufacturing and economic growth, employing a dynamic panel threshold model for 38 Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1980 to 2023. Unlike prior research, it uniquely identifies an inflation threshold (4.4954%) that alters the manufacturing-growth relationship. Below this threshold, value-added manufacturing significantly boosts economic growth, while above it, growth declines despite manufacturing process, revealing a novel nonlinear dynamic. Utilizing advanced methodologies like System Generalized Method of Momemnts (GMM) and Diallo's (2020) dynamic panel threshold approach, the study addresses endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, offering robust insights. These findings highlight inflation's critical influence on manufacturing's growth effects, urging policymakers to prioritize price stability to maximize manufacturing's economic contributions. This research enriches the literature by integrating inflation thresholds into growth models, providing fresh policy implications for sustainable economic strategies in OECD economies.
Problemy Ekorozwoju, Jan 10, 2026
This study investigates how democratic quality conditions the fiscal implications of sustainable ... more This study investigates how democratic quality conditions the fiscal implications of sustainable development policies in OECD countries. Building on the theoretical notion of a democracy threshold, the analysis explores whether fiscal stance-measured through budget balances and debt dynamics-responds differently to sustainability-oriented expenditures across varying levels of democratic maturity. Annual data for 38 OECD economies spanning 1993-2023 are employed, and a dynamic panel threshold model following Caner and Hansen (2004) and Kremer et al. (2013) is estimated to capture potential nonlinearities and endogeneity. The model integrates fiscal, macroeconomic, and institutional variables, with the democracy index serving as the threshold variable. The results reveal the presence of a statistically significant democracy threshold, indicating that below this point, sustainable development amplifies fiscal pressures, leading to higher deficits and debt accumulation. Above the threshold, however, democratic consolidation strengthens fiscal discipline and allows sustainability to be absorbed without destabilizing public finances. These findings underscore that fiscal stance and democratic governance are mutually reinforcing components of sustainable development rather than competing objectives. Policy implications highlight the importance of tailoring fiscal frameworks to institutional maturity-strengthening fiscal transparency and accountability in low-democracy regimes while integrating sustainability assessments into fiscal rules and budgeting in advanced democracies. The study contributes to the literature by introducing the democracy threshold concept into fiscal stance analysis and providing empirical evidence of regime-dependent effects of sustainable development. By linking fiscal stance, democracy, and sustainability performance within a unified empirical framework, this research aligns with SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions), offering guidance for designing more resilient and equitable fiscal strategies in OECD countries.
Achilles Tendon of Local Fiscal Governance: City Councils and Participatory Budgeting with Chances and Uneasinesses for Türkiye
British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Dec 11, 2025
Since its early implementations, the issue of participation has been disputed within the contexts... more Since its early implementations, the issue of participation has been disputed within the contexts of representative and direct democracy. Participatory budgeting, which is undertaken to internalize civil society and democracy at the local level but is unclear to what extent it is addressed and why it is prescribed, as well as having a scale problem for its participants, packs a punch in terms of contributing to the fiscal dilemmas of city councils. Drawing on global experiences, this study argues that the local fiscal sphere constitutes a critical vulnerability for city councils, as budgeting processes often shift away from genuine individual, citizen, and civil society engagement and evolve instead into politically driven participation dominated by political actors. This manuscript offers a general observation of participatory budgeting and examines the feasibility, advantages, disadvantages, fiscal chances, and uneasinesses of participatory budgeting in the Turkish example as a unitary and decentralized state. The argument that comes out is that technological and democratic evolutions would not necessarily increase participation in favour of low-income and disadvantaged groups, namely due to political conflicts and economic inequalities.
Does Economic Freedom Alleviate Youth Disengagement? An Empirical Analysis of NEET in the European Union
European Planning Studies, Jan 18, 2026
This study explores the impact of economic freedom on NEET (Not in Employment, Education, or Trai... more This study explores the impact of economic freedom on NEET (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) rates among youth aged 15–29 across 27 EU countries. Using data for 2002–2022, the study conducts a panel data analysis employing the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator. Findings show that greater economic freedom significantly reduces NEET rates, with consistent effects across age subgroups. Results remain robust across alternative measurements, while economic growth and inflation are also influential. In line with SDG 8, policies promoting youth entrepreneurship, expanding vocational training, easing labour market entry, and enhancing structural economic freedom are recommended to foster decent work, inclusive growth, and long-term youth engagement in the EU.
Moderating Effect of Terrorism in the Income Inequality-Military Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Transition Economies
Eastern European Economics, 2026
Prior studies point to a significant correlation between income inequality and military expenditu... more Prior studies point to a significant correlation between income inequality and military expenditures. This study started by questioning whether the impact of terrorism on this relationship may have been neglected. The main purpose of the study is to demonstrate whether the terrorism variable has a significant effect on the direction and strength of the nexus between military expenditures and income inequality. As such, the effect of terrorism has been analyzed using as a moderator variable. Forecasts for 26 transition economies and the 2002–2020 period have been performed using three different models. The first two models are baseline models, and in the third model, the moderator effect is included with all the control variables. Three different income groups (top 10, middle 40, and bottom 50) have been selected as indicators of income inequality. We also confirm the results by utilizing the income inequality indicator (gini_disp) of the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). All three model findings signalize a positive finding similar to previous literature in the relationship between income inequality and military expenditure. However, the stand-alone and moderator effects of terrorism vary between income groups. For the top 10 and middle 40 income groups, terrorism correlates inversely with income inequality according to Model 1 findings, and in the same direction for the bottom 50. For the top 10 and middle 40 income groups, the moderator effect of terrorism in the inequality-military expenditure relationship is positive (Model 2). The direction of the effect is positive when control variables are added (Model 3). For the bottom 50 income group, the moderator effect of terrorism is in the same direction (positive) for Models 2 and 3. Our results illustrate that decision-makers in terrorism-affected transition economies may be puzzled regarding the opportunity cost of social welfare expenditure for low incomes against military expenditure.
Acta Oeconomica, 2024
One of the objectives of fiscal policy is to ensure a fair income distribution. In the literature... more One of the objectives of fiscal policy is to ensure a fair income distribution. In the literature, there is no consensus on the income inequality – fiscal policy nexus. Unlike previous studies, this paper contributes to the literature by quantifying the moderating effect of income inequality in total tax revenues and gross national expenditures, which are defined as fiscal policy tools. With the help of two moderator variables (income inequality * total tax revenues, and income inequality * gross national expenditures), the impact of income inequality and fiscal policy tools on economic growth are tested for 20 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 1990 to 2019. Diagnostic tests are also carried out on the series before long-term relationships are determined. Our analysis finds that the inequality-growth relationship is negative, the moderator variable defined as income inequality * total tax revenues decreases the strength of the relationship, and the moderator variable defined as income inequality * gross national expenditures increases the strength of the relationship.
Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2022
Debt sustainability, which is connected with the sustainability of budget deficits or fiscal sust... more Debt sustainability, which is connected with the sustainability of budget deficits or fiscal sustainability, is also related to whether the financing deficit required for a successful fiscal policy can be met through debt unlimitedly. Debt sustainability, which is defined variously in the literature and is the subject of empirical analysis, theoretically subsumes a sustainable level of public debt stock/gross domestic product ratio, reducing public expenditures while increasing public revenues, and taking measures to increase production capacity. Various institutions, such as International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyze debt sustainability. In the study, the approach used by the IMF, which makes modeling under more realistic scenarios for countries with high rollover risk, such as Turkey, is preferred. With this research curiosity, in this study, the outlook of the public debt stock for the current year and the next five years and the debt sustainability for Turkey are analyzed with the help of the modeling (Market Access Countries-Debt Sustainability Analysis/MAC-DSA) developed by IMF. After stating basic knowledge on debt sustainability and the MAC-DSA approach, the analysis findings illustrate that the public debt stock will diminish for the next five years in Turkey and depicture that the public sector borrowing requirement will not surpass 30%. Nonetheless, since the real interest rate, exchange rate, and credibility factors will heighten Turkey's fiscal fragility, the public sector borrowing requirement will proceed to hover above the critical value of 15% in both the baseline and shock scenarios.
Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci-Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 2022
The study attempts to gauge the impact of human development and public governance quality on econ... more The study attempts to gauge the impact of human development and public governance quality on economic welfare in the long term. The basic proposal of the analysis is that economic growth and/or development cannot be the measurement of the value of economic performance. For this reason, the Economic Prosperity Index, developed by the "Legatum Institute" is the dependent variable of the linear logarithmic model estimated in the paper. Besides, the measurement of economic welfare, (public) governance quality, which neoclassical economics ignored for a certain period, is considered an important input to human development. By taking these two variables into the research center, the study sights the rise in the prosperity (welfare) of 31 transition economies that achieved intense development after the 2000s from 2007 to 2020. Transition economies are selected owing to the rapid development and strong welfare effects they have reached with the millennium. So, the main hypothesis of the research is that transition economies have high human development and good governance that creates economic prosperity. By applying this research question, cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity tests, unit root tests, and co-integration tests, the author has conducted the lag length selection before the long-run relationship. Comprehensive analysis findings reveal that both indicators enhance economic prosperity by positively affecting them in the long run and that some of the deviations are improved.
Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 2022
Türkiye için 1970-2019 dönemi üzerine mali yorgunluk davranışının analiz edildiği bu çalışma, mal... more Türkiye için 1970-2019 dönemi üzerine mali yorgunluk davranışının analiz edildiği bu çalışma, mali tepki fonksiyonu yardımıyla faiz dışı fazlanın tepki veremeyeceği borç eşiğini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Seriler arası eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin Tam Modifiye Edilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FM-OLS) ile tahmin edildiği analizin bulguları, kamu borcunun milli gelire oranı %64,52 düzeyinin üstüne çıktığında mali yorgunluğun başladığını ve bu noktada faiz dışı fazlanın milli gelire oranının %10,83 düzeyinde olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Bir başka deyişle, ekonominin %64,52’nin üzerinde bir kamu borcuna tepki veremeyeceğini ve faiz dışı fazlayı %10,83 düzeyinden daha fazla artırma olanağının bulunmadığını söylemek mümkündür. Mali açıdan kırılgan yapıya sahip Türkiye’nin, borç sürdürülebilirliği bakımından makroekonomik şoklara karşı mali disiplinden taviz vermemesi, maliye politikasının sürdürülebilirliği açısından kamu borcunun seyrini dikkatle takip etmesi gerekmektedir.
Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2023
Bilinen ilk medeniyetlerin ortaya çıkmasıyla insanoğlunun hayatına girmiş olan vergiler, varlıkla... more Bilinen ilk medeniyetlerin ortaya çıkmasıyla insanoğlunun hayatına girmiş olan vergiler, varlıklarını günümüz modern devlet anlayışına kadar sürdürmüştür. Doğaldır ki bu tarihsel süreçte devletlerin vatandaşlarına arz ettiği mal ve hizmetlerin nicelik ve nitelik yönünden uğradığı değişime paralel olarak vergiler de değişime uğramıştır. En temel değişimi vergilerin günümüz devletlerinde kamu gelirlerinin en baskın bileşeni haline gelmesi olarak ifade etmek yanlış olmayacaktır. Zira tüm dünya ülkeleri kapsamında devamlı artış eğilimi içerisindeki kamusal mal ve hizmetlerin finansmanı için ülkelerin gelir ihityaçları artmakta ve bu ihtiyaç vergi gelirlerinin başı çektiği kamusal gelirlerle karşılanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Vergi gelirlerinin devletler için çok büyük bir öneme sahip olduğu açıkça görülmektedir. Öte yandan verginin diğer tarafı olan mükellefler için de aynı düzeyde önemli olduğu belirtilebilir. Çünkü ödeyecekleri vergi, bireylerin üzerinde bir yük oluşturmakta ve tüketim kararları üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. Bu bakımdan bireyler ödeyecekleri vergi miktarını en aza indirerek gelirlerini başka mal sepeti üzerinde harcamayı arzu edebilmektedirler. İlgili çerçevede, vergi gelirlerini eksiksiz olarak toplamak isteyen devletler için mükelleflerin vergiye uyum düzeyleri ve dolayısıyla vergiye uyum kararları üzerindeki unsurlar da önemli hale gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada mükelleflerin vergiye uyum kararları üzerinde etkili olabilen bireysel ve bireysel olmayan unsurlar araştırılmıştır.
Eastern Journal of European Studies, 2022
Corruption, which adversely affects macroeconomic aspects such as growth, investment, and income ... more Corruption, which adversely affects macroeconomic aspects such as growth, investment, and income distribution, causes the anticipated accomplishment from social transfers not to be realized. In this study, the income inequality effects of social transfers under the corruption threshold are investigated with the annual data of 19 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries for the period 1999-2019. Following Hansen's (1999) and Wang's (2015) modeling, it has been detected that corruption has a significant threshold effect on this relationship. Two thresholds have been specified. Below the first threshold of 3.520, the relationship between social transfers and income inequality is inverse. Above this threshold level and the second threshold value of 3.577, the relationship is in the same direction. In 19 CEE countries, it can be concluded that an augmentation in the corruption and the abuse of social transfers by public officials may amplify income inequality.
Sosyoekonomi, 2022
Most of the studies focusing on the differences between countries in income inequality indicate t... more Most of the studies focusing on the differences between countries in income inequality indicate that the explanatory power of empirical analysis can be increased by including monetary policy variables such as inflation level, inflation level flexibility and interest rate into economic models. Particularly, the distributional effects of inflation have become a major topic. The aim of the study is to analyze the non-linear effects of inflation on income inequality. In this context, panel threshold analysis has been implemented for 40 developed and developing countries in the period of 1993-2019. It is concluded that the aspect of the income inequality is determined by the inflation level. The consumer price index (2010 = 100) has been defined as the inflation indicator, and significant levels with single (49,300) and double (45,000) thresholds have been detected. Besides, estimates have been repeated with another inequality indicator for robustness check and similar results have been obtained. The relationship between inflation and income inequality is in the inverse (negative) aspect below the threshold inflation level and in the same (positive) aspect above it. The analysis confirms the existence of nonlinear effects and contributes to literature samples.
Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2022
Dünya ekonomilerinin zaman içerisinde geçirdiği dönüşüm ve meydana gelen ekonomik bunalımlar sebe... more Dünya ekonomilerinin zaman içerisinde geçirdiği dönüşüm ve meydana gelen ekonomik bunalımlar sebebiyle artan istikrarsızlıklar, gelir eşitsizliği ve istihdam oranları (işsizlik oranları) üzerinde önemli değişikliklere sebep olmaktadır. Bu değişikliklerin etkileri ülkeden ülkeye ve dönemsel olarak değişebilmektedir. Bu itibarla, çalışmada, literatürden farklı olarak işgücüne aktif olarak katılmayan emek kesimini ihtiva eden işsizlik oranı yerine, istihdam oranının gelir eşitsizliği ile ilişkisini ve bu ilişkinin yönünü tespit etmek amaçlanmıştır. 1996-2018 dönemi ile 60 gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke için dengeli bir panel veri seti oluşturularak istihdam oranı, kentleşme, kadın başına doğum oranı, gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu (yatırım) ve insani gelişme değişkenlerinin gelir eşitsizliği üzerine etkisi panel Tobit analizi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Tesadüfi etkiler panel Tobit analizi kapsamında üç ayrı model oluşturulmuştur. Sansürlenmemiş, sağdan ve soldan sansürlenmiş tesadüfi etkiler panel Tobit analizi bulgularına göre, istihdam oranı, yatırım ve insani gelişme değişkenlerindeki %1'lik artış gelir eşitsizliğini azaltmaktadır. Buna karşın, kentleşme ve kadın başına doğum oranı değişkenlerindeki %1'lik artış gelir eşitsizliğini artırmaktadır.
Prague Economic Papers, 2023
The tax wedge mainly quantifies the extent to which tax on labour income enervates employment and... more The tax wedge mainly quantifies the extent to which tax on labour income enervates employment and it reflects the total labour costs. It is commonly defined as the ratio between the amount of taxes paid by the worker and the related total labour costs for the employer. As such, the tax wedge affects both the labour force (unemployment) by reflecting the burden of the employer and indirectly the household disposable income. It is conferred that the alteration caused by the tax wedge on income distribution has been analysed with a small number of empirical studies. Based on the hypothesis that the tax wedge may affect income distribution from different aspects in terms of household size and income level, dynamic panel data analysis is carried out for 36 OECD member countries and the period 2000–2019. The dynamic panel analysis estimation findings for two households (single person with no children, earning 167% of the average wage, and one-earner married couple with two children, earning 100% of average wages) reveal that the tax wedge is negatively related to unfair income distribution. In addition, the aspect of the relationship is the same (negative) for the two households.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2023
National income calculations may not include knowledge that directly concerns the socioeconomic s... more National income calculations may not include knowledge that directly concerns the socioeconomic stance in an economy. Knowledge plays a significant role in promoting the economic growth of a country; however, its socio-economic role has received little attention in the literature. Total factor productivity, which is the main source of long-term economic prosperity, expresses the increase in productivity in all production factors. This paper attempts to quantify the effects of total factor productivity growth on economic prosperity. The analysis is conducted for the 2007-2020 period and 18 Central Eastern Europe countries. The “Legatum Prosperity Index” is utilized in the econometric analysis, in line with the purpose of the study. Results of the study with panel ordinary least squares, panel fixed-effects, panel random effects, panel-corrected standard errors (robustness check), and system-generalized method of moments (robustness check) confirm that total factor productivity growth...
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 2022
Purpose ― The paper queries the impacts of income inequality on economic growth in selected advan... more Purpose ― The paper queries the impacts of income inequality on economic growth in selected advanced and emerging market economies by adopting nonlinearity and endogeneity.
Methods ― This research analysis is based on a balanced panel from 1996 to 2018 and employs the dynamic panel threshold analysis after baseline estimations with the fixed-effect, system Generalized Method of Moments, and difference Generalized Method of Moments.
Findings ― This study finds a nonlinearity between income inequality and economic growth. Income inequality has a significant threshold effect on the growth of both panels. Besides, the threshold effect of emerging market countries is higher than the level for advanced countries. This means emerging market economies are negatively affected above the estimated threshold value according to the advanced economies.
Implication ― This paper supports that inequality may harm much more economic growth above a specific level. On the other hand, these distorting effects are related to the other economic issues of countries, such as government spending, inflation, export of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment.
Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the nonlinear effects of income inequality and different aspects of economic growth above or below the estimated threshold value, thereby providing cross-country comparability and endogeneity.
Methods ― This research analysis is based on a balanced panel from 1996 to 2018 and employs the dynamic panel threshold analysis after baseline estimations with the fixed-effect, system Generalized Method of Moments, and difference Generalized Method of Moments.
Findings ― This study finds a nonlinearity between income inequality and economic growth. Income inequality has a significant threshold effect on the growth of both panels. Besides, the threshold effect of emerging market countries is higher than the level for advanced countries. This means emerging market economies are negatively affected above the estimated threshold value according to the advanced economies.
Implication ― This paper supports that inequality may harm much more economic growth above a specific level. On the other hand, these distorting effects are related to the other economic issues of countries, such as government spending, inflation, export of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment.
Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the nonlinear effects of income inequality and different aspects of economic growth above or below the estimated threshold value, thereby providing cross-country comparability and endogeneity.
Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 2020
Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği’nin en önemli maliye politikası aracı olan kamu harcamalarının 1999-... more Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği’nin en önemli maliye politikası aracı olan kamu harcamalarının 1999-2016 dönemi esas alınarak konjonktürel durumu incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda, ilk aşama olarak Avrupa Komisyonu yönteminden faydalanılarak her bir Avrupa ülkesi için kamu harcamalarının esnekliği hesaplanmaktadır. Bu itibarla, AMECO’dan (Avrupa Komisyonu Ekonomik ve Mali İşler Genel Müdürlüğü Yıllık Makroekonomik Veritabanı) elde edilen konjonktürel olarak ayarlanmış genel kamu harcamalarının potansiyel GSYİH oranı, genel hükümet cari harcamaları 2010 sabit fiyatları ile potansiyel GSYİH ve GSYİH fiyat deflatörü verileri kullanılarak her ülke ve her yıl için kamu harcamalarının esnekliği hesaplanmaktadır. İkinci aşamada ise hesaplanan esneklik değerlerine göre Avrupa Birliği’nde kamu harcamalarının 1999-2016 dönemi için konjonktürel durumu analiz edilmektedir. Analize göre, özellikle 2008 kriz dönemi öncesinde ve sonrasında Avrupa Birliği’nde kamu harcamalarının konjonktürel durumlarının farklılık gösterdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ampirik Bir İnceleme / The Relationship between Income Inequality and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation
Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2019
The curiosity created by the increase in the number of ongoing theoretical and empirical studies ... more The curiosity created by the increase in the number of ongoing theoretical and empirical studies and the widening of its scope has been the starting point of the study. In contrast to other studies, this study evaluates whether income inequality creates economic growth or not in three chapters rather than making a correlative assessment of the inequality-growth relationship by drawing a conceptual, theoretical and empirical framework in the first two chapters. Within this scope, Hansen (1999) threshold value analysis is employed. A balanced panel is generated with annual and five-year average datas for the period 1996-2016. There are 60 countries subject to analysis. These countries are first examined in a single panel with annual datas. The countries which are separated according to World Bank income classification are analyzed in four different panels with annual datas again. All countries are examined in a panel with five-year average datas, and are further examined in five panels with annual and five-year average datas in order to measure the effectiveness of taxes and transfers. Gini coefficient, which is an indicator of inequality, is defined as threshold variable and regime dependent variable. In relation to the Gini coefficient, two different inequality variables and the efficiency of taxes and transfers obtained from these variables are set as thresholds. Annual growth rate of per capita gross domestic product is defined as the dependent variable and control variables are added to the model. Tables of estimation findings, evaluations of the relationship between findings, theoretical and empirical approaches and policy recommendations are included in the third chapter. The threshold effect of income inequality on economic growth differs in terms of meaningful and meaningless results in separate panels and policy recommendations are asserted regarding those findings.
Ekonomski Vjesnik, 2022
Purpose: This paper gauges the nexus between government expenditures and the output level in Turk... more Purpose: This paper gauges the nexus between government expenditures and the output level in Turkey. Our primary research objective is to evaluate the extent to which government expenditures give rise to an increase in GDP taking the Armey curve theory as a basis for the analysis. Succinctly speaking, this theory suggests that the expansionary impact of government expenditure on income level has diminishing nature and beyond a certain threshold public spending impairs rather than accelerates economic activities for several reasons including crowding out, rent-seeking, tax hikes, and public debt surges.
Methodology: In order to test the validity of this theory, we use a dataset with annual frequency covering the 1968-2019 period, which is the longest dataset used to carry out this analysis in the literature for Turkey. We set up an ARDL model to estimate the long-run coefficients required for quantifying the optimal level of government spending in Turkey.
Results: According to our findings, the estimated function exhibits a concave down functional form, which implies a diminishing marginal effect of government spending on GDP, suggesting thereby that the Armey curve theory is valid for Turkey. In addition, even though government expenditure has topped out in recent years, it is still below the GDP maximising optimal level, which indicates that there is sufficient room for expansionary fiscal policies, with the caveat of a potential negative marginal impact on GDP once the optimal threshold is exceeded.
Conclusion: The long-run coefficients from the ARDL estimation reveal that despite a consistent upward trend, government expenditures are still below their optimal level, which implies that there is fiscal space available to the government as far as output maximisation is concerned. However, government expenditures have been on a downward trend recently, which is contrary to output maximisation.
Methodology: In order to test the validity of this theory, we use a dataset with annual frequency covering the 1968-2019 period, which is the longest dataset used to carry out this analysis in the literature for Turkey. We set up an ARDL model to estimate the long-run coefficients required for quantifying the optimal level of government spending in Turkey.
Results: According to our findings, the estimated function exhibits a concave down functional form, which implies a diminishing marginal effect of government spending on GDP, suggesting thereby that the Armey curve theory is valid for Turkey. In addition, even though government expenditure has topped out in recent years, it is still below the GDP maximising optimal level, which indicates that there is sufficient room for expansionary fiscal policies, with the caveat of a potential negative marginal impact on GDP once the optimal threshold is exceeded.
Conclusion: The long-run coefficients from the ARDL estimation reveal that despite a consistent upward trend, government expenditures are still below their optimal level, which implies that there is fiscal space available to the government as far as output maximisation is concerned. However, government expenditures have been on a downward trend recently, which is contrary to output maximisation.
Route Educational and Social Science Journal, 2020
Dünya ekonomileri küreselleşme sürecindedir. Yerelleşme eğilimleri de son yıllarda önem kazanmakt... more Dünya ekonomileri küreselleşme sürecindedir. Yerelleşme eğilimleri de son yıllarda önem kazanmaktadır ve bölgesel ölçekte faaliyet gösteren küçük ve orta ölçekli işletmeler (KOBİ'ler) ön plana çıkmaktadır. Büyük firmalar ve ölçek ekonomileri, 1930'ların ortasından 1980'lerin ortasına kadar nispeten yavaş büyüyen dünyada başarılı olmuştur. Yirminci yüzyılın ilk yarısında, modern endüstri vasıtası ile erişilen en yüksek seviye, büyük ölçekli olarak tanımlanmaktadır ve bu, dünyadaki hükümetler için ağır sanayinin gelişimini teşvik etmek için bir moda haline gelmiştir. Başlangıçta, "daha büyük daha iyidir" fikri geçerli idi. Daha sonraları ise, daha büyük olanın çok etkisiz, yüksek maliyetli, bürokratik engelleri olduğu, yeterince esnek olmadığı, daha küçük ve daha hızlı aktörlerin daha geniş bir alanda başarılı olacağı şeklindeki görüş önem kazanmıştır. KOBİ'ler 1970 yılında Amerikan işletmelerinin %80'ini oluştururken, bu oran 1990'larda %90'a ulaşmıştır. KOBİ'ler, günümüzde dünyanın birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkesinde olduğu gibi Türkiye'de de önemli bir konuma ve öneme sahiptir. Bu ilgi ve önem, bu çalışmaya başlamak için bir motivasyon oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle KOBİ'ler hakkında temel bilgiler verilmektedir. KOBİ'lerin güçlü ve zayıf yanları, ihtiyaçları ve mevcut konumları, G20, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye gibi örnekler özelinde incelenmektedir. İlaveten, Türkiye'deki KOBİ'lerin mevcut yapısına ve yasal dayanağına, bunların gelişim sürecine ilişkin açıklamalara ve değerlendirmelere odaklanılmaktadır. Son olarak KOBİ'ler için bazı politika önerileri yapılmaktadır.