Papers by Madanmohan Ghosh
Income and investment, not energy policy, are driving GHG emission intensities
Economic Systems Research
Journal of Development Economics, 2004
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
Climate Change Economics
This paper presents the overall and distributional welfare effects of alternative multi-regional ... more This paper presents the overall and distributional welfare effects of alternative multi-regional emissions trading coalitions relative to unilateral action. It focusses on meeting Paris Agreement pledges and more emissions reduction targets consistent with 2∘C and 1.5∘C temperature pathways in 2030. The results from seven computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are compared. Across all models, welfare gains are highest with a global market and increase with the stringency of targets. All regional coalitions also show overall welfare gains, although lower gains than the global market. The models show more variability in the gains by a participant. Depending on the model, participants may benefit more from some regional arrangements than from a global market or face modest losses compared to the domestic reductions alone, due to interactions between carbon targets and fossil fuel markets. The scenario with a joint China–European Union emissions trading system in all sectors is con...
A MODEL INTERCOMPARISON OF THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL COALITIONS FOR AMBITIOUS CLIMATE MITIGATION TARGETS
Climate Change Economics, 2022
This paper presents the overall and distributional welfare effects of alternative multi-regional ... more This paper presents the overall and distributional welfare effects of alternative multi-regional emissions trading coalitions relative to unilateral action. It focusses on meeting Paris Agreement pledges and more emissions reduction targets consistent with 2∘C and 1.5∘C temperature pathways in 2030. The results from seven computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are compared. Across all models, welfare gains are highest with a global market and increase with the stringency of targets. All regional coalitions also show overall welfare gains, although lower gains than the global market. The models show more variability in the gains by a participant. Depending on the model, participants may benefit more from some regional arrangements than from a global market or face modest losses compared to the domestic reductions alone, due to interactions between carbon targets and fossil fuel markets. The scenario with a joint China–European Union emissions trading system in all sectors is consistently favorable for participants and provides the highest economic gains per unit of emissions abated.
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005
This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the a... more This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997. We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.
Global Economy Journal, 2012
Attracting FDI has become an integral part of the national development strategies in many economi... more Attracting FDI has become an integral part of the national development strategies in many economies, as it is generally believed that the benefits from foreign direct investment (FDI) outweigh its drawbacks. The UNCTAD in its World Investment Report (2006) highlights that there were 205 FDI related policy changes across the world in 2005, and most of these changes made conditions more favourable for foreign companies to enter and operate. However, FDI is still far less liberalized than trade in goods and services. Recent studies undertaken at the OECD show that although declined significantly since 1980s, barriers to inward FDI are still widespread in OECD countries. This paper explores the impact of FDI restrictions on inward FDI stocks using panel time series (1981-2004) data for 23 OECD countries. Our empirical results show that FDI restrictions do have significant impact on inward FDI stocks. The estimated short-run elasticity of inward FDI stocks with respect to FDI restriction...
Anh have provided helpful comments on earlier draft. The views expressed herein are those of the ... more Anh have provided helpful comments on earlier draft. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Effects of a Free Trade Area of the Americas: Evaluation Based on a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model
Integration and Trade, 2006
In this paper we evaluate the effects of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the North, C... more In this paper we evaluate the effects of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the North, Central and South American countries using a dynamic general equilibrium multi-sector, multi- region model of global trade. Our results suggest that there are modest gains in terms of welfare from the FTAA to the existing North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
Journal of Global Economic Analysis
This article is the result of fruitful discussions in the OECD/GTAP workshop "Shaping long-term b... more This article is the result of fruitful discussions in the OECD/GTAP workshop "Shaping long-term baselines with CGE models" in OECD, Paris, January 24-25 2018, in particular, the break-out session on energy and the environment. We have benefitted greatly from ideas, topics and opinions that were brought up during that session and thank all participants. We would not have been able to assess the modelling and baselining procedures utilised for the various models presented in this article without generous inputs from modellers outside of the author team. Special thanks go to Nick Macaluso, Jim McFarland and Bert Saveyn. All errors are the responsibility of the authors.
Climate Change Economics
Carbon pricing generates revenues which can be recycled back into the economy in different ways t... more Carbon pricing generates revenues which can be recycled back into the economy in different ways to help mitigate the economic cost of abatement. These include, lump-sum transfers to households; reducing existing distortionary taxes, such as income taxes on labor and capital; investment in technology funds leading to energy/emissions efficiency improvements; and/or infrastructure developments that help expedite the adoption of low or lower carbon-intensive technologies. In this paper, we undertake illustrative simulations to explore how different revenue recycling options influence the overall economic outcome in terms of broad macroeconomic indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or household welfare. Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) multi-sector, multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (EC-MSMR) is used to simulate various revenue recycling options. These simulations are undertaken for the U.S. economy. The main findings of the paper are: (i) ...
Embodied Emissions in International Trade: Regional Dimensions
Recently, the life cycle assessment on carbon footprint has opened an interesting policy debate f... more Recently, the life cycle assessment on carbon footprint has opened an interesting policy debate for regions that whether a climate change policy should be based on production or consumption of embodied emissions. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of how these two approaches alter the individual country responsibility in mitigating climate change. In doing so we estimate the embedded greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that occur to satisfy total domestic demand for goods and services both produced within the domestic boundaries and those that are imported and exported in major regions of the World. We use Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 7 that are benchmarked to output and trade flows of 2004. In these estimations all embedded emissions, i.e., both direct emissions in the production process and all the downstream ones that occurred in providing inputs of goods and services irrespective of the sources are included. Finally, an attempt is also made to understand the pattern in the balance of embedded emissions (BEET) in major world regions in the nineties and in recent year. Methodological details are discussed at length. Our main findings are that Russia, China, Brazil, Ukraine, South Africa are the topmost net exporters of emissions. Canada is also a net exporter of emissions, while the United States, Japan, Germany and United Kingdom are the topmost net importer of emissions.
Journal of Economic Integration, 2007
We are grateful to Norman Ireland and Jeff Round for discussion of the issues taken up here, and ... more We are grateful to Norman Ireland and Jeff Round for discussion of the issues taken up here, and participants in a seminar at Western Ontario.
The International Trade Journal, 2011
for their detailed comments. Views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily ref... more for their detailed comments. Views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of Industry Canada.
Production-based versus consumption-based emission targets: implications for developing and developed economies
Environment and Development Economics, 2013
This paper evaluates how the marginal abatement cost (MAC) and the efficiency cost of policies wi... more This paper evaluates how the marginal abatement cost (MAC) and the efficiency cost of policies will change at the regional and global level if reduction targets are based on consumption-based emissions (CBEs) rather than on production-based emissions (PBEs). Using a CGE model, this paper finds that the MAC of CBEs is in general higher than that of PBEs, mainly due to limited substitution possibilities between energy and non-energy goods in final consumption compared to those in the choice of inputs in production activities under PBEs. Interestingly, when policies such as border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are introduced to reduce CBEs, net importers of emissions are better off, while net exporters of emissions are worse off in this approach compared to the PBEs target. If border tariffs are not allowed, the CBEs target turns out to be worse both for net importers and exporters of emissions.
Impacts of Technology Uncertainty on Energy Use, Emission and Abatement Cost in USA: Simulation results from Environment Canada's Integrated Assessment Model
The Energy Journal, 2014
To what extent could various technological advancements in the coming decades potentially help gr... more To what extent could various technological advancements in the coming decades potentially help greenhouse gas mitigation in the U.S.? What could the potential contribution of end-use technology and other key clean electric energy technologies such as CCS, Nuclear power, wind & solar, and biomass be? This paper presents simulation results from an Integrated Assessment Model that suggest that, in the absence of policy measures, even under the most optimistic state of technology development and deployment scenarios, the U.S. energy system would still be dominated by fossil fuels and GHG emissions would increase significantly between 2010 and 2050. A pessimistic scenario in end-use technology would result in increased electric and non-electric energy use and GHG emissions compared to the advanced technology scenario, while a pessimistic scenario in any one of the four clean technologies examined would result in reduced electric and non-electric energy use and a small increase in GHG emissions. However, if all technologies are in pessimistic status, GHG emissions would increase significantly as more fossil fuels would be used in the energy system. Technology alone cannot achieve the abatement levels required. A market-based policy targeting the reduction of U.S. GHG emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2050 would result in dramatic decrease in coal-fired generation. With abatement policies in place, favorable technology scenarios reduce abatement costs and facilitate the energy system transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.
Energy Economics, 2012
Using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper compare... more Using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper compares the efficiency, distributional and emission leakage effects of border tax adjustments (BTAs) as part of unilateral climate policies that are based on carbon dioxide (CO2)-only versus those based on all greenhouse gases (GHGs). Simulation results suggest that the broad-based GHG policies in general have lower efficiency costs and result in less re-distributive effects. BTAs bring modest efficiency gains with adverse distributional consequences. The distributional impacts are smaller under broad-based GHG policies compared to that based on CO2 only. However, these are due to a wider variety of abatement options under multi-gas policies rather than the BTAs per se. The main difference between the two policies is distributional effects. First, CO2-only based policies have worse impacts on fossil fuel exporters such as Russia and relatively better outcomes for oil importers such as India and China among the non-abating countries compared to that of multi-gas policies particularly when it involves large global emissions reduction. Second, sectoral coverage under BTAs also influences the differential outcomes. For example, Brazil is worse impacted under GHG-based policies if agriculture is brought under BTAs as most of its emissions are non-CO2 based and agriculture is the primary source of these emissions.
Temperature control, emission abatement and costs: key EMF 27 results from Environment Canada’s Integrated Assessment Model
Climatic Change, 2014
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the potential impacts of alternative international climate chang... more ABSTRACT This paper investigates the potential impacts of alternative international climate change scenarios based on different policies and technological circumstances on future emission pathways and abatement costs. It also examines if these hypothetical scenarios could result in significant emission reductions required to control the global temperature from rising to no more than 2.5 °C above preindustrial level. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper examines these issues under 12 scenarios derived from four policy perspectives and three technology dimensions. Results show that the no-policy-change baseline scenarios lead to high global average temperatures in the future. To control the temperature efficiently, every global region will be required to undertake considerable abatement efforts. Current country pledges alone, even if fully implemented, cannot control the global temperature in the future to within a comfortable zone. There will still be large gap between the reductions needed to meet the 2.5 degree objective, associated with 550 ppm and the reductions associated with existing abatement efforts. Further stringent policies together with favourable technological conditions may lead to the desired level of temperature control. Participation by only a subset of nations not only makes achieving the temperature goal difficult but also costly. To achieve temperature control efficiently, global coordination and full participation by all regions are necessary and global participation may reduce global abatement costs. It is worth noting that abatement costs vary widely across regions under different policy and technology scenarios.
Non-tariff Barriers to Trade: Case Study of India Vis-a-vis EC, Japan, and USA
An academic directory and search engine.
Review of Development Economics, 2007
This paper utilizes a general equilibrium R&D model of endogenous growth via increasing capital v... more This paper utilizes a general equilibrium R&D model of endogenous growth via increasing capital variety to examine the impact of alternative policies on productivity and economic growth. The model is calibrated using data from the Canadian economy. Findings reveal that direct incentives such as subsidies to R&D activities would have the highest productivity impact on the Canadian economy, that an increase in subsidies to the users of R&D capital (output) would have a positive but smaller impact, and trade liberalization would have minimal effects on productivity growth via its impact on international R&D spillovers.