Papers by Stable Economy Journal
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
The misery index, which is the sum of the inflation rate and the The present study aims to model ... more The misery index, which is the sum of the inflation rate and the The present study aims to model the dynamic relationship between institutions, environmental pollution, economic development, and public health based on Bayesian model averaging approaches in MENA countries. This is applied research conducted over the period 2010-2023. For modeling the dynamic interactions among variables, the PTVP-DMA, PTVP-DMS, PBMA, and PWALS approaches were employed. The model was estimated in two stages. In the first stage, the relationship between institutions, environmental pollution, economic development, and public health was estimated without considering the indicators of good governance and democracy. In the second stage, by incorporating these indicators, the relationships were reestimated. The results revealed the existence of nonlinear dynamic behavior among the variables under study. Accordingly, the PTVP-DMA model demonstrated higher accuracy compared to the other models. Based on the institutional index model, economic development, having the longest effect period, was identified as the most influential variable affecting institutional quality. In the economic development model, institutional quality was found to be the most influential variable with the longest effect period. In the public health model, environmental pollution, again with the longest effect period, was identified as the most influential variable affecting public health. In the environmental pollution model, economic development was the most influential factor with the longest effect period. Incorporating good governance and democracy variables strengthened the interrelations among institutional quality, economic development, public health, and environmental pollution, while also improving the reliability of the estimated coefficients.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
For several years, the Iranian economy has been facing a phenomenon called bank entrepreneurship,... more For several years, the Iranian economy has been facing a phenomenon called bank entrepreneurship, which has weakened the main role of banks, namely financial intermediation, and has become a challenging issue in the country's banking system. Bank restrictions in the money market, as well as weak laws and infrastructure, have forced banks to enter other markets in a rational response to control their risk. Given the key role of banks in the structure of the economy and the financial system, it is essential to examine the allocation of bank resources in stock market and money market fluctuations; therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the dimensions of bank entrepreneurship using the literature on shadow banking in Iran. In order to examine this issue, the generalized factor time-variable parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-FAVAR) and seasonal data on non-state commercial banks during the period 2002-2020 were used. The results of this study show that the bank entrepreneurship variable has shown a positive response to stock market and money market shocks. It was also observed that the effect of money market shock on the research variables is greater than that of capital market shock, which is due to the different depth of these two markets. The results obtained from this study show that banks tend to engage in corporate and non-intermediary activities in response to stock and money market shocks. These activities lead to the expansion of shadow banking behaviors.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
This research employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive frequency connectedness appr... more This research employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive frequency connectedness approach, utilizing daily data spanning from October 2014 to October 2023, to investigate the dynamic spillovers of return volatility between the dollar and 8 listed industries in Iranian stock market across short-term, mediumterm, and long-term frequency intervals. The study reveals several key findings: First, the average total connectedness index, indicative of interconnectedness, was approximately 50%, escalating to over 70% in the preceding three years. Second, volatility spillover primarily manifests at short-term frequencies, highlighting shortterm connectedness as a significant source of systemic risk. Third, while the dollar receives shocks throughout the observed period and at short-term frequencies, it emerges as a transmitter of volatility to the market network in medium and longterm frequencies. Fourth, the basic metals industry emerges as the most permanent transmitter of volatility over medium and long intervals. Fifth, strong pairwise connectedness indices are observed among the four major commodity-oriented industries. Sixth, a lead-lag effect is discerned within the stock market network, with large listed industries considered to transmit volatilities to smaller industries.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Evaluating the correlation between financial assets is one of the basic issues in investment anal... more Evaluating the correlation between financial assets is one of the basic issues in investment analysis and risk management. Investors who try to diversify their asset portfolio in order to avoid risk pay special attention to the connections between markets. In recent years, the existence of long-term memory in Iran's financial markets has been an important part of time series analysis. Empirical evidence shows that negative and positive shocks do not have the same effect on the fluctuations of time series of financial variables. In this research, the dynamic conditional correlation relationship between currency markets and oil prices is investigated with emphasis on long-term memory effect and asymmetry of their influence. For this purpose, the daily data of oil prices and common currencies of dollar, euro, yuan and lira have been used between 2/5/1393 to 24/1/1402. The results of the FIEGARCH-DCC data analysis indicates the existence of a negative and meaningless conditional correlation between the oil price and the dollar rate, and the existence of a positive and significant conditional correlation between the oil price and the euro rate. In foreign exchange transactions, positive and significant correlations between currencies are confirmed. Also, the existence of longterm memory in the studied time series is confirmed.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
The misery index, which is the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, is one of the... more The misery index, which is the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, is one of the key indicators for measuring economic pressures on households and assessing the effectiveness of countries' economic policies. In recent years, many developing countries have faced the phenomenon of economic fragility; a situation that can lead to increased livelihood vulnerability and social dissatisfaction. The present study aimed to analyze the impact of economic fragility dimensions on the misery index in selected countries with a fragility alert status during the period 2007-2022. Using panel data and the generalized moments method (GMM), this study examined the effects of the variables of economic recession and poverty, unbalanced development, migration and brain drain, and population pressure on the misery index. The results showed that all components of economic fragility have a positive and significant effect on the misery index, and population pressure also plays a reinforcing role in increasing this index. The findings indicate that economic fragility weakens the level of economic well-being and exacerbates the misery index through increased inflation and unemployment. Therefore, reducing the dimensions of fragility by strengthening sustainable, balanced growth and preventing elite migration, along with population management, is an inevitable necessity to improve the misery index and improve the quality of life of households
Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal p... more Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal policy tools. However, fiscal sustainability is obligatory for achieving economic stability. This research, utilizing linear and nonlinear fiscal reaction functions, including quadratic and cubic, time-varying parameter and Markov-switching regime change functions, measures the fiscal sustainability of the Iranian government and its determinants in the period 1970-2021. Based on the findings of this research, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in linear and nonlinear models is negative and insignificant, but in the model with control variables, it is negative and strongly significant. Hence, the model with control variables results in the unsustainability of Iran's fiscal policy. The results of the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model reveal the existence of two fiscal regimes in Iran's fiscal policy. An unsustainable fiscal regime, in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is negative and significant, and a sustainable fiscal regime in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is positive but insignificant. Also, the results of the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model demonstrate that the average filtered and smoothed transmission probabilities of remaining in an unsustainable fiscal regime is higher than that of a sustainable fiscal regime, which indicates that Iran's fiscal policy has been unsustainable. Based on the results of the time-varying parameter model, the reaction of the primary budget balance to the debt expansion has been negative and diminishing, therefore, debt reduction has not been the priority of governments in Iran, and as a result, Iran's fiscal policy has been proceeding in the unsustainable direction.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Rule-based monetary policy provides a systematic framework that enhances the effectiveness of mon... more Rule-based monetary policy provides a systematic framework that enhances the effectiveness of monetary actions. However, implementation of rules inflexibly, without consideration of prevailing economic circumstances, can lead to undesirable outcomes.
This research aims to clarify the nature of Iran's monetary policy from 1975-2023. Specifically, we investigate whether the central bank adopted an active and targeted approach to controlling inflation or pursued a passive approach during the studied period. To this end, we employed a Markov Switching model to analyze the central bank's response to deviations of inflation from the target rate. The findings indicated the existence of three distinct policy regimes: The first highlights the central bank's proactive approach to controlling inflation in the years 1978, 1993, and 2005. This finding highlights the central bank's commitment to inflation control during these periods. The second regime reveals a highly passive monetary policy during 1983-1992, 1997-2004, and 2009-2015. This result indicates that in response to rising inflation, the policymaker significantly increased the monetary base growth rate, contradicting the goal of inflation control. The third regime points to a relatively passive approach during 1975-1977, 1979-1982, 1994-1996, 2006-2008, and 2016-2023. This finding indicates that despite understanding the inflationary consequences during these periods, the policymaker has somewhat moderated the growth rate of the monetary base, thereby mitigating the intensity of expansionary policies. However, no fundamental shift occurred in the overall direction of monetary policy, and policymakers did not entirely avoid expansionary policies. Based on the findings, Iran's monetary policy has predominantly adopted a passive and inflationary approach during the study period. This approach exhibits higher persistence than the active approach. Therefore, a shift towards active, flexible, and rule-based policymaking is essential for achieving price stability.
This research aims to clarify the nature of Iran's monetary policy from 1975-2023. Specifically, we investigate whether the central bank adopted an active and targeted approach to controlling inflation or pursued a passive approach during the studied period. To this end, we employed a Markov Switching model to analyze the central bank's response to deviations of inflation from the target rate. The findings indicated the existence of three distinct policy regimes: The first highlights the central bank's proactive approach to controlling inflation in the years 1978, 1993, and 2005. This finding highlights the central bank's commitment to inflation control during these periods. The second regime reveals a highly passive monetary policy during 1983-1992, 1997-2004, and 2009-2015. This result indicates that in response to rising inflation, the policymaker significantly increased the monetary base growth rate, contradicting the goal of inflation control. The third regime points to a relatively passive approach during 1975-1977, 1979-1982, 1994-1996, 2006-2008, and 2016-2023. This finding indicates that despite understanding the inflationary consequences during these periods, the policymaker has somewhat moderated the growth rate of the monetary base, thereby mitigating the intensity of expansionary policies. However, no fundamental shift occurred in the overall direction of monetary policy, and policymakers did not entirely avoid expansionary policies. Based on the findings, Iran's monetary policy has predominantly adopted a passive and inflationary approach during the study period. This approach exhibits higher persistence than the active approach. Therefore, a shift towards active, flexible, and rule-based policymaking is essential for achieving price stability.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Every year medical expenditures account for a large portion of government budgets, and managing t... more Every year medical expenditures account for a large portion of government budgets, and managing these costs is very important. In recent years, the use of renewable energy has increased in most countries. The use of renewable energy and economic growth can contribute to effect on carbon dioxide emissions and medical expenditures. This study examines the effect of renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth on medical expenditures in OPEC oilproducing countries that are highly polluted due to their oil reserves, during the years 2000 to 2022, using a dynamic panel data approach. The results of this study show that carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in OPEC oil-producing countries have led to increased medical expenditures in the short and long term, and increased use and consumption of renewable energy has reduced medical expenditures. Therefore, it seems that OPEC countries should pursue green economic growth in order to reduce healthcare spending, in line with reducing carbon dioxide emissions and increasing renewable energy consumption. It is proposed that OPEC member countries spend the proceeds from the sale of oil revenues on developing the use of renewable energies in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and increase economic growth.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Economic growth, as one of the key development indicators, plays a significant role in improving ... more Economic growth, as one of the key development indicators, plays a significant role in improving public welfare and enhancing social indicators. Economic growth is influenced by structural and institutional factors, among which financial development and geopolitical risk are critical. Financial development significantly facilitates investment, enhances productivity, and stimulates innovation by improving access to financial resources. Conversely, geopolitical risks, such as political tensions, can weaken economic growth by increasing uncertainty. This study aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risk and financial development on economic growth in Iran from 1990 to 2023, using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) method. The results indicate a negative effect of geopolitical risk and a positive impact of financial development on economic growth in Iran. Geopolitical risks, including security threats, sanctions, domestic unrest, and regional and international political developments, directly impact the country's economic growth trajectory. This effect manifests negatively in reduced economic activity, decreased investment flows, and increased uncertainty in financial and economic markets. On the other hand, the development of the financial system, which encompasses improved access to financial resources, strengthened capital markets, and reinforced financial institutions, has a significant and positive impact on economic growth. In other words, financial development processes can accelerate economic growth in Iran by increasing available financial resources for investment, improving resource allocation, and strengthening economic infrastructure.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
In recent years, the consumption of low-carbon energy has increased in many developing and develo... more In recent years, the consumption of low-carbon energy has increased in many developing and developed countries to protect the environment. With increased awareness of climate change in recent years nuclear energy has received renewed attention. Positions that attribute nuclear energy an important role in climate change mitigation emerge. With its low carbon emissions and potential for large-scale electricity generation, nuclear energy has emerged as a suitable option to meet the growing energy needs of countries while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, the integration of nuclear energy into a sustainable economic framework is subject to various institutional factors. This study examines the effect of institutional quality on the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in selected OECD countries. This research examines the hypothesis that institutional quality plays an important role in shaping the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. To achieve this goal, panel data analysis is used between 1995 and 2022 for a sample of OECD countries. The results of this research show us that in the long run, the effect of nuclear energy consumption and institutional quality on economic growth is positive and significant, but institutional quality limits the effect of nuclear energy on economic growth. These findings suggest that while institutional quality is an important factor, its benefits in relation to nuclear energy and economic growth might not always be straightforward. It is crucial for policymakers and industry leaders to balance institutional improvements with other strategic investments and consider the broader context in which nuclear energy operates.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Understanding the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies and their impact on macroecono... more Understanding the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies and their impact on macroeconomic variables is crucial for sustainable economic policies. Uncoordinated policies can amplify economic fluctuations, increase uncertainty, and hinder long-term growth. This study examines the consequences of different active and passive monetary and fiscal policy combinations on key macroeconomic variables, including consumption, production, and investment.
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed to achieve this, incorporating households categorized into Ricardian and non-Ricardian groups. Fiscal policy is introduced through tax rules, and various policy scenarios are analyzed. The model's structural parameters are estimated using the Bayesian method and quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 2004 to 2023.
The findings highlight the pivotal role of monetary and fiscal policy interaction in shaping macroeconomic stability, especially in economies facing structural challenges and policy constraints. Economic instability increases when fiscal policy is active while monetary policy remains passive. Passive monetary policy limits the central bank’s ability to counteract inflationary pressures from expansionary fiscal policies. Increased government spending and fiscal deficits drive inflation, leading to greater volatility. This combination undermines the central bank’s capacity to stabilize inflation and output, creating an unsustainable economic environment.
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed to achieve this, incorporating households categorized into Ricardian and non-Ricardian groups. Fiscal policy is introduced through tax rules, and various policy scenarios are analyzed. The model's structural parameters are estimated using the Bayesian method and quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 2004 to 2023.
The findings highlight the pivotal role of monetary and fiscal policy interaction in shaping macroeconomic stability, especially in economies facing structural challenges and policy constraints. Economic instability increases when fiscal policy is active while monetary policy remains passive. Passive monetary policy limits the central bank’s ability to counteract inflationary pressures from expansionary fiscal policies. Increased government spending and fiscal deficits drive inflation, leading to greater volatility. This combination undermines the central bank’s capacity to stabilize inflation and output, creating an unsustainable economic environment.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Therefore, the present study aims to examine the poverty and inequality indicators in Iran's econ... more Therefore, the present study aims to examine the poverty and inequality indicators in Iran's economic development programs with an emphasis on the pro-poor growth approach. Accordingly,, the poverty line and its corresponding poverty indicators are first calculated. Calculating the poverty line based on standardized methods that have the least amount of error with reality is important from this perspective. After calculating the poverty line and its corresponding indicators in urban and rural areas, considering the path of economic growth during the economic program, the welfare resulting from it will be examined. Accordingly, the concept of pro-poor growth was tested. The results of the study showed that economic development programs have failed to create the conditions for poverty reduction, and poverty has increased in urban and rural areas and among female and male heads of households.
The data used in this study includes information on the household budget of urban and rural families collected by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1993–2021 (1372–1400 in the Iranian calendar). The survey on household income and expenses during this period was conducted in two different formats based on two separate classifications of goods and services. Until 2004 (1383), data collection was conducted using the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System. From 2004 onwards, household budget survey questionnaires were prepared and implemented based on the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). To create a dataset with appropriate frequency for econometric estimations, household budget data collected under the earlier classification system (prior to 2004) needed to be adjusted and matched with the new classification system at the level of 12 commodity groups. This was done by mapping the codes of goods from the two classifications according to the corresponding table. Since a household is generally formed with at least two members, with minimal economies of scale realized at this size, a two-member household was considered the reference family for this study. The equivalence scale for households ranging from 1 to 13 members and beyond was calculated accordingly. The cost of the optimal food basket was calculated annually based on the prices of each year, separately for urban and rural households. For each year studied, and for both urban and rural households, the ratio of the actual gross expenses of the lowest-income 40% of two-member households to the food poverty line for two-member households was calculated. The inverse of this ratio was multiplied by the food poverty line for two-member households to derive the total poverty line for two-member households. Using equivalence scales, the poverty line for households of other sizes was also determined. During the Second Economic Development Plan (1995–1999 or 1374–1378 in the Iranian calendar), the urban poverty line increased from 160,000 rials in 1995 to 360,000 rials by the end of the plan, reflecting a growth rate of 124%. In rural areas, the growth rate during the First Economic Development Plan was slightly over double. The rural poverty line rose from 109,000 rials in 1995 to 220,000 rials.
The data used in this study includes information on the household budget of urban and rural families collected by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1993–2021 (1372–1400 in the Iranian calendar). The survey on household income and expenses during this period was conducted in two different formats based on two separate classifications of goods and services. Until 2004 (1383), data collection was conducted using the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System. From 2004 onwards, household budget survey questionnaires were prepared and implemented based on the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). To create a dataset with appropriate frequency for econometric estimations, household budget data collected under the earlier classification system (prior to 2004) needed to be adjusted and matched with the new classification system at the level of 12 commodity groups. This was done by mapping the codes of goods from the two classifications according to the corresponding table. Since a household is generally formed with at least two members, with minimal economies of scale realized at this size, a two-member household was considered the reference family for this study. The equivalence scale for households ranging from 1 to 13 members and beyond was calculated accordingly. The cost of the optimal food basket was calculated annually based on the prices of each year, separately for urban and rural households. For each year studied, and for both urban and rural households, the ratio of the actual gross expenses of the lowest-income 40% of two-member households to the food poverty line for two-member households was calculated. The inverse of this ratio was multiplied by the food poverty line for two-member households to derive the total poverty line for two-member households. Using equivalence scales, the poverty line for households of other sizes was also determined. During the Second Economic Development Plan (1995–1999 or 1374–1378 in the Iranian calendar), the urban poverty line increased from 160,000 rials in 1995 to 360,000 rials by the end of the plan, reflecting a growth rate of 124%. In rural areas, the growth rate during the First Economic Development Plan was slightly over double. The rural poverty line rose from 109,000 rials in 1995 to 220,000 rials.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of fiscal shock, exchange rate shock, and ... more The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of fiscal shock, exchange rate shock, and trade shock on military expenditures in Iran a major oil-producing country in the Middle East. To achieve this goal, a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was designed, incorporating the realities of the Iranian economy in the macroeconomic variables and calibration of the parameters. The model was then used to analyze the effects of various shocks. After determining the input values of the model and estimating the parameters using Bayesian estimation methods with seasonal data from the Iranian economy over the period 1991-2023, the simulation results of the model variables indicate the model's validity in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. The results of the model show that oil and exchange rate shocks have a positive effect on military expenditures. However, fiscal shocks initially have a negative impact on military expenditures, but over time, that shock exerts a different effect on the trend of expenditures. Except for the exchange rate and oil shocks, where the return to a stable state of military expenditure variables is prolonged and the effects of the shock dissipate slowly, the tax shock returns to its stable state after a short period. In other words, the effects of these two shocks (oil and exchange rate shocks) differ slightly from the fiscal shock in both amplitude and duration of fluctuations. This underscores the importance of oil and the value of the national currency for the Iranian economy.
Increasing asset prices above their fundamental values leads to the creation of asset price bubbl... more Increasing asset prices above their fundamental values leads to the creation of asset price bubbles. Asset price bubbles pose a threat to financial stability and macroeconomic stability. However, there is no consensus on how policymakers should deal with bubbles, and the role of monetary policy remains disputed. Therefore, this study examines the impact of monetary policies on asset price bubbles in Iran using data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022 and the TVP-VAR method. To this end, the asset price index (stock market, housing, gold, and exchange rate) will first be constructed using principal component analysis. Then, the asset price bubble index will be calculated using the BSADF method, showing that the asset price index exhibited bubble behavior in two periods in 2018 and 2020. The monetary base, interest rate, and legal reserve rate are considered as monetary policy indicators. The results show that monetary policies have had varying effects on the asset market bubbles over time. Additionally, the results indicate that the monetary policy shock due to the reduction in the interest rate and the increase in the monetary base has led to an increase in asset price bubbles, while the bubble component of asset prices has not been affected by the shock due to the reduction in the legal reserve rate.
Many economists and sociologists believe that the inflation rate is more important than other eco... more Many economists and sociologists believe that the inflation rate is more important than other economic indicators because inflation has many effects on various economic, social and political aspects of the society. With this approach, the present research identifies bottleneck commodities which correct pricing them are more important in the inflation rate control. In order to achieve this goal, 12 groups of basic commodities of the country, which are the main commodities that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), were collected and presented in a complete graph. For each node that represents a group of basic commodities, five features were considered. The features are the annual inflation related to each group, the degree of influence in increasing the total index, the number of subgroups of each main group, the degree of dependency, and the priority (level of demand). Then, by running the traveling salesman algorithm on the graph, we found a path where the group of foods and beverages is the bottleneck of the research subject. The results of the present study show that the management of pricing this group have an effective impact on the inflation control of other groups over time.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
This article rigorously examines the multifaceted obstacles and challenges associated with the im... more This article rigorously examines the multifaceted obstacles and challenges associated with the implementation of national cryptocurrencies in developing countries, particularly focusing on both central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private sector cryptocurrencies. The emergence of cryptocurrencies presents both opportunities and risks for financial systems, particularly in regions where traditional banking infrastructure is limited. To systematically identify and prioritize these challenges, the authors employ a decision-making framework grounded in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). This analytical approach enables a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks and vulnerabilities that may hinder successful cryptocurrency adoption.
In a bid to enhance the precision of decision-making processes, the authors propose a novel methodology that combines Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). This dual approach allows for improved evaluation and comparison of various challenges faced by stakeholders in implementing cryptocurrencies, yielding more nuanced insights into the decision-making landscape.
The study identifies several critical risks associated with CBDCs, including inadequate financial backing for stablecoins, inherent currency volatility, complexities stemming from centralized management, and the absence of a universally accepted ecosystem for transaction facilitation. On the other hand, significant challenges facing private-sector cryptocurrencies include the preservation of small-scale capital value and the essential consideration of data protection and privacy for users.
Overall, the findings underscore the need for comprehensive and well-informed strategies to mitigate these challenges. By addressing these obstacles, policymakers and stakeholders can navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency implementation more effectively, ultimately fostering financial inclusion, economic growth, and enhanced stability in developing economies.
In a bid to enhance the precision of decision-making processes, the authors propose a novel methodology that combines Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). This dual approach allows for improved evaluation and comparison of various challenges faced by stakeholders in implementing cryptocurrencies, yielding more nuanced insights into the decision-making landscape.
The study identifies several critical risks associated with CBDCs, including inadequate financial backing for stablecoins, inherent currency volatility, complexities stemming from centralized management, and the absence of a universally accepted ecosystem for transaction facilitation. On the other hand, significant challenges facing private-sector cryptocurrencies include the preservation of small-scale capital value and the essential consideration of data protection and privacy for users.
Overall, the findings underscore the need for comprehensive and well-informed strategies to mitigate these challenges. By addressing these obstacles, policymakers and stakeholders can navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency implementation more effectively, ultimately fostering financial inclusion, economic growth, and enhanced stability in developing economies.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
The macroeconomic data of Iran during the last half century show that despite theoretical efforts... more The macroeconomic data of Iran during the last half century show that despite theoretical efforts and various policy measures, the inflation rate in our country in comparison with most countries in the world, has been high, chronic and volatile. In the studies regarding money and inflation, besides different approaches to money demand, there are also different approaches to money supply that can be classified into two general approaches: exogenous and endogenous money; Approaches that differ in both the process of money creation and policy ecommendations to curb inflation completely. In this research, an attempt has been made to evaluate the endogenity of money supply in Iran's economy by the post-Keynesian approach, while knowing more about the nature of the money creation process. For this purpose, the hypothesis of endogeneity of money supply in Iran is tested using annual data during the period 1357-1400. In order to measure the endogeneity of money supply, the time-varying parameter model was estimated by two-stage estimation method and state-space approach. The results indicate that money is endogenous, in addition, the effect of explanatory variables, is not constant, Actually credit is one the most important of these factors. Also, the trend of the coefficients indicates their changes over time. Based on the findings, the nature of banks is confirmed as a liquidity creation institution in addition to the central bank. Therefore, the central bank, especially in the last two decades, has less power in to determine and control liquidity increase. therefore, it is necessary to change monetary policies from targeting monetary totals to the conditions of endogenous money.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2025
Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal p... more Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal policy tools. However, fiscal sustainability is obligatory for achieving economic stability. This research, utilizing linear and nonlinear fiscal reaction functions, including quadratic and cubic, time-varying parameter and Markov-switching fiscal regime change functions, measures the fiscal sustainability of the Iranian government and its determinants in the period 1970-2021. Based on the findings of this research, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in linear and nonlinear models is negative and insignificant, but in the model with control variables, it is negative and strongly significant. Hence, the model with control variables results in the unsustainability of Iran's fiscal policy. The results of Markov-switching fiscal regime change model reveals the existence of two fiscal regimes in Iran's fiscal policy. An unsustainable fiscal regime, in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is negative and significant, and a sustainable fiscal regime in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is positive but insignificant. Also, the results of the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model demonstrates that the average filtered and smoothed transmission probabilities of remaining in unsustainable fiscal regime is higher than that of sustainable fiscal regime, which indicates that Iran's fiscal policy has been unsustainable. Based on the results of the time-varying parameter model, the reaction of the primary budget balance to the debt expansion has been negative and diminishing, therefore, debt reduction has not been the priority of governments in Iran, and as a result, Iran's fiscal policy has been proceeding in the unsustainable direction.
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2024
In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of psychological factors on the... more In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of psychological factors on the fluctuations of coin prices in the market. Psychological factors belong to a category of factors that have given rise to the subfield of behavioral economics. On the other hand, price fluctuations near certain numbers, are an example of market inefiiciency, which contradicts the foundation of classical economic theories. The period under study in this research ranges from 1392 to 1400, including a period of price stability (1392-1396) and a priodof high fluctuations due to international sanctions(1396-1400). The price range during this period has been from 800000 Tomans to 16000000 Tomans.
The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) approach is used to estimate the corresponding equation. Here, a 10-day period is considered, and four time intervals around the barriers are examined. To further investigate the hypotheses and the distribution of prices around random numbers, the Nikooyi fitting method is used. The research results confirm the existence of price clustering phenomenon for coins during the period of 1396-1400. The results indicate that the dispersion of numbers in prices is not uniform, and prices show reactions to random numbers. On the other hand, the existence of this psychological phenomenon leads to the creation of a coin bubble or the deviation of coin prices from the equivalent price of 10 grams of gold, which is considered as the real and intrinsic value of the coin. In bullish market conditions, the coin bubble is more significant, but in bearish and stable market conditions, this bubble decreases."
The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) approach is used to estimate the corresponding equation. Here, a 10-day period is considered, and four time intervals around the barriers are examined. To further investigate the hypotheses and the distribution of prices around random numbers, the Nikooyi fitting method is used. The research results confirm the existence of price clustering phenomenon for coins during the period of 1396-1400. The results indicate that the dispersion of numbers in prices is not uniform, and prices show reactions to random numbers. On the other hand, the existence of this psychological phenomenon leads to the creation of a coin bubble or the deviation of coin prices from the equivalent price of 10 grams of gold, which is considered as the real and intrinsic value of the coin. In bullish market conditions, the coin bubble is more significant, but in bearish and stable market conditions, this bubble decreases."
University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 2024
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of shocks on welfare loss under fractiona... more The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of shocks on welfare loss under fractional and full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, we designed a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the new Keynesians, considering the fractional and full reserve banking system (FRB) and the realities of the Iranian economy. We then examined the effects of impulses under two scenarios. After determining the model input values and estimating the parameters using quarterly data from Iran’s economy during the period of 1991-2021 via the Bayesian estimation method, the results of the model variables simulation validate the model’s ability to describe the fluctuations in Iran’s economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that the final result of shocks in fractional reserve banking on most of the real and financial sector variables is longer and larger than in full reserve banking. Also, the comparison of the response functions of the selected variables in the two models shows that banking has caused the share of shocks in creating the fluctuations of key variables to change, and even the position of some of them with oil shocks and money changes. Regarding the welfare loss of shocks in two basic and optimal models, the results showed that the lowest welfare loss is related to the optimal model (full reserve). The lowest welfare loss in the basic model (0.01479200) and the optimal model (0.00001306) corresponds to the case where the coefficient of the production gap in the loss function is equal to 0.5. That is, if the inflation priority is applied to the loss function, the numerical value of the welfare loss is significantly smaller than the other investigated cases. This confirms that in both models, the priority of inflation is more effective than the priority of production in the CB loss function in terms of welfare. This means that the Central Bank of Iran should pay more attention to inflation between inflation and production fluctuations because the full reserve of deposits has a greater impact on inflation.