T. Lakshmanasamy - University of Madras

T. Lakshmanasamy - University of Madras
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T. Lakshmanasamy
University of Madras
Econometrics
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Research on Applied Econometrics, Human Behaviour, Development Economics. Happiness, Social Networks.
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Papers by T. Lakshmanasamy
Applications of Econometrics
Determinants of Happiness in India: Ordered Probit Estimation of Life Satisfaction
Indian journal of mental health
, Apr 19, 2022
Background: Maximising happiness of people is truly the proper measure of social and economic pro...
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Background: Maximising happiness of people is truly the proper measure of social and economic progress and the goal of any public policy. The socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect life satisfaction are so varied that many domains of life events influence happiness. Despite significant income growth and achievements in social indicators, India ranks poorly in the happiness rank. Such a disparity is attributed to the attitude of people towards positional and status concerns and the relative comparison of life evaluation. This paper attempts to identify the determinants of happiness and estimate their effect on life satisfaction among individuals in India. Specifically, this paper examines the relationship between income and life satisfaction in India in an attempt to understand whether money matters for happiness. Methodology: This study uses the sixth wave (2010-2014) of World Values Survey data across 12 Indian states. Since the response variable, life satisfaction or happiness, is measured in the WVS as an ordered category in the Likert scale, empirical estimation is based on the ordered probit method. The covariates considered as determinants of happiness in India are gender, social class, marital status, income, health status, employment status, education, number of children, age, and religion. Results: The estimated ordered probit results show that the probability of reporting happiness increases with education, health and social class whereas age, income, employment, children and gender have no statistical effect on happiness in India. Changes in the marginal effects are reported in the case of primary education, health, employment and middle social class. As income changes from high income to low income, people tend to become unhappier. Conclusion: Income, education, health and social status of people are positively associated with life satisfaction. Poor people and individuals in the middle social category are less happy.
Demand for AYUSH Healthcare in India: Multinomial Logit Estimation of the Utilisation of Indian System of Medicine
Journal of AYUSH: Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy
, 2021
Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic s...
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Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic systems of medicine are widely practiced and used in India. The increasing healthcare costs of the modern corporate type of hospitals and the less expensiveness of local herbal medicines drive the use of Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH) hospitals for the treatments of chronic diseases, acute illness episodes, maternity health care and catastrophic health expenditure. Within the AYUSH healthcare system, there are state-wise differentials in the use of AYUSH systems of medicine. The present paper analyses the use of the AYUSH healthcare system in India using the 68 th round (2011-2012) of National Sample Survey Organisation data for the four southern states of India-Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu-applying the multinomial logit method to estimate the number of visits to the AYUSH hospitals by household members. The estimated results show that the relative probability of choosing the AYUSH treatment and the number of visits to AYUSH hospitals is influenced significantly by the cost of medical expenditure, wealth/income/landholding, household size and composition and region. The occupation, household headship and community of the household have no significant effect on the use of AYUSH hospital healthcare in southern India.
Demand for AYUSH Healthcare in India: Multinomial Logit Estimation of the Utilisation of Indian System of Medicine
Journal of AYUSH
, Sep 17, 2021
Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic s...
more
Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic systems of medicine are widely practiced and used in India. The increasing healthcare costs of the modern corporate type of hospitals and the less expensiveness of local herbal medicines drive the use of Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH) hospitals for the treatments of chronic diseases, acute illness episodes, maternity health care and catastrophic health expenditure. Within the AYUSH healthcare system, there are state-wise differentials in the use of AYUSH systems of medicine. The present paper analyses the use of the AYUSH healthcare system in India using the 68 th round (2011-2012) of National Sample Survey Organisation data for the four southern states of India-Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu-applying the multinomial logit method to estimate the number of visits to the AYUSH hospitals by household members. The estimated results show that the relative probability of choosing the AYUSH treatment and the number of visits to AYUSH hospitals is influenced significantly by the cost of medical expenditure, wealth/income/landholding, household size and composition and region. The occupation, household headship and community of the household have no significant effect on the use of AYUSH hospital healthcare in southern India.
Money and Happiness in India: Is Relative Comparison Cardinal or Ordinal and Same for All
Journal of Quantitative Economics
, 2022
The relative income hypothesis is often invoked to explain the absence of a systematic long-run r...
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The relative income hypothesis is often invoked to explain the absence of a systematic long-run relationship between income and happiness. It is not yet clear with what and with whom individuals compare their income, whether the social comparison is cardinal or ordinal, and whether the effect of such reference income is the same for all in their evaluation of life satisfaction. Studies often estimate the relative income effect on happiness using cardinal average reference income by ordered probit regression, in which the covariate effects are constant across happiness levels. To overcome these twin issues, this paper specifies two alternative ordinal relative income measures, rich or poor relative to average income and rank position within the reference group income distribution, and estimates their differential effects across happiness distribution by panel random effects generalised ordered probit method. The panel REGOPROB estimates of WVS data of India over a longer period of 24 years from 1990 to 2014 across states show that Indian people are more sensitive to social comparison than to individual income and the ordinal comparison is stronger than the cardinal comparison in the evaluation of life satisfaction. A rise in the rank position within the reference group is relatively more important for people with average levels of life satisfaction than for individuals at the extremes of life satisfaction distribution, either dissatisfied/unhappy or satisfied/happy Indians.
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Average happiness in India slightly increased, while average life satisfaction significantly declined, indicating a potential disconnect between income and contentment levels.
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Property Inheritance and Empowerment: An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of the Hindu Succession Law Reform on Married Women Decision Making
Journal of Human Rights Law and Practice, 4(2), 20-31
, 2021
The Hindu Succession Amendment Act, 2005 provides Hindu women equal inheritance rights in ancestr...
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The Hindu Succession Amendment Act, 2005 provides Hindu women equal inheritance rights in ancestral property. This legal reform empowers married women, enhance autonomy and increase married women decision making power in marital households. This paper estimates the impact of HSAA 2005 on women empowered and autonomy in their marital household in 24 states of India where the HSSS law has been implemented after 2005 using the 2015-17 National Family and Health Survey data and applying the nonparametric difference-indifference (DID) method. The DID estimates show that the property rights reform has increased the decision making power of the post-2005 Hindu married women with respect to their health care, visit family and friends and major household purchases by 2 percent, and spending husband's earnings by 9 percent, and also of non-Hindu women. The HSAA 2005 reform of legal property rights to women has impacted married women with greater autonomy and more say in household decisions.
Demand for AYUSH Healthcare in India: Multinomial Logit Estimation of the Utilisation of Indian System of Medicine
Journal of AYUSH: Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy, 10(2), 18-26
, 2021
Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic s...
more
Despite the widespread use of the allopathic system of medicines, the indigenous non-allopathic systems of medicine are widely practiced and used in India. The increasing healthcare costs of the modern corporate type of hospitals and the less expensiveness of local herbal medicines drive the use of Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH) hospitals for the treatments of chronic diseases, acute illness episodes, maternity health care and catastrophic health expenditure. Within the AYUSH healthcare system, there are state-wise differentials in the use of AYUSH systems of medicine. The present paper analyses the use of the AYUSH healthcare system in India using the 68 th round (2011-2012) of National Sample Survey Organisation data for the four southern states of India-Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu-applying the multinomial logit method to estimate the number of visits to the AYUSH hospitals by household members. The estimated results show that the relative probability of choosing the AYUSH treatment and the number of visits to AYUSH hospitals is influenced significantly by the cost of medical expenditure, wealth/income/landholding, household size and composition and region. The occupation, household headship and community of the household have no significant effect on the use of AYUSH hospital healthcare in southern India.
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AYUSH is particularly preferred for managing various acute and chronic conditions, contributing to national health goals.
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INFLATION FORECASTING IN INDIA: BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ESTIMATION AND FORECAST EVALUATION
Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 1(2), 135-156
, 2021
Forecasting inflation is the key but challenging task for the monetary authority that aims to sta...
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Forecasting inflation is the key but challenging task for the monetary authority that aims to stabilise price level conducive for sustained economic growth. The standard autoregressive models overly depend on inter-temporal macro variables and their lags rendering inaccurate estimation and poor forecast accuracy. The Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) estimation allows more endogenous variables and prior information and enables more accurate inflation forecasts. This paper forecasts inflation over short horizons (up to 6 quarters ahead) using the quarterly data from Q2-1996 to Q1-2019 data applying the BVAR method with rolling and expanding window forecast strategies. The best prior is selected by comparing the outof-sample forecast accuracy. Two BVAR models that describe the important dynamics and interactions between the determinants of inflation are estimated. The BVAR model is compared with other benchmark models. The BVAR inflation forecasting outperforms the benchmark univariate and VAR models. The fan charts for modelling inflation through the Bayesian VAR model show that the model delivers a decent performance and can be used to forecast inflation for short-horizons.
The Causal Relationship between Volatility in Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Price in India: GARCH Estimation of Spillover Effects
Indian Journal of Research in Capital Markets, 8(3), pp.8-21
, 2021
The macroeconomic variables crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate, inflation and stock retur...
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The macroeconomic variables crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate, inflation and stock returns are highly volatile and are highly correlated to each other. The volatility in one market spills over to other markets. This paper examines the dynamic causality between crude oil price, exchange rate and BSE Sensex and their volatilities in India. The daily data on macro variables for 14 years between January 2006 to March 2019 is used in the GARCH estimation of causal effects of volatility spillovers. The GARCH estimates show that the volatility and volatility spillover of one market cause volatility and volatility spillovers in other markets in India. The crude oil price and exchange rate volatility and volatility spillovers cause volatility in the BSE Sensex. The volatility in BSE Sensex is highly overdone by internal shocks of the stock market itself.
Household Choice of Healthcare Utilisation: Logit Estimation of Inpatient, Outpatient and Child Delivery Services
Indian Development Policy Review, 2(2), 139-155
, 2021
This paper analyses the household choice of public and private health facilities for inpatient an...
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This paper analyses the household choice of public and private health facilities for inpatient and outpatient care and child delivery in India using the 71 st round NSSO data applying the binary logit and multinomial logistic regression estimation methods. The estimated results reveal that private healthcare services dominate inpatient and outpatient healthcare in India. The availability of government or employer financial support or insurance is the major factors that influence the choice of public healthcare services. As public hospitals are the only viable health facility in rural and remote areas, for people belonging to low-income and deprived communities and in rural areas, public healthcare is the main source not only for healthcare but also for child delivery. Education improves the behaviour of people in seeking the services of healthcare providers. The availability of ANMs in public health facilities decreases the odds of child delivery at home and increases the probability of institutional child delivery. Improving the quantity and quality as well as accessibility and affordability of public healthcare services and providing health insurance cover is important for the healthcare choice of peopleand a healthy India.
Navjivan Trust Building
Journal of Indian Education, 47(1), 33-45
, 2021
The NCERT encourages original and critical thinking in the area of school Education and Teacher E...
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The NCERT encourages original and critical thinking in the area of school Education and Teacher Education. The JIE provides a forum for teachers, teacher educators, educational administrators and researchers through presentation of novel ideas, critical appraisals of contemporary educational problems and views and experiences on improved educational practices. Its aims include thought-provoking articles, challenging discussions, analysis, challenges of educational issues, book reviews and other related features. The Journal reviews educational publications other than textbooks. Publishers are invited to send two copies of their latest publications for review. The views expressed by individual authors are their own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCERT or the views of the Editors.
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An empirical analysis reveals a significant gender gap in education expenditure allocation in rural and urban Bihar and Kerala.
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Does Money Buy Happiness in India? Panel Estimation of the Long-Run Relationship Between Income and Subjective Well-being Across States
Artha Vijnana - An Indian Journal of Economics, 63(4), 414-443
, 2021
This paper analyses the Easterlin paradox of income-happiness relationship in India, that despite...
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This paper analyses the Easterlin paradox of income-happiness relationship in India, that despite vast crosscountry differences in income levels, happiness level across countries is pretty much close and that rising income levels in any country is not systematically associated with rising life satisfaction levels. In line with crosscountry analysis of happiness studies, the empirical analysis on the relationship between income-subjective well-being is analysed within-states, between-states and across states-over time. The panel fixed effects ordered probit regression method is applied to a panel of five waves of WVS data for 12 major states of India over the period 1990-2014. The individual and average life satisfaction and happiness levels are estimated with NSDP per capita of each state and groups of states. The long-run income-subjective well-being relationship is analysed with changes in average subjective well-being and per capita NSDP. The estimated results reveal that there is considerable variation in levels of subjective wellbeing within and across states as well as over time in India. While life satisfaction levels declined in most states, happiness level slightly increased in some states. The well-being gain from income growth in low-income states is comparatively better than that of developed states. In the long-run, the change in well-being levels is not commensurate with the change in NSDP per capita. The empirical results of this paper on incomesubjective well-being relationship in Indian states validates the Easterlin paradox in India. Economic growth in states of India seems to have not improved the human lot, in fact, it leaves people not satisfied and less happy with their life.
Monetary Policy and Economy: Structural Vector Autoregression Estimation of Central Bank Policy Transmission Channel Effects
”, Indian Journal of Economics, 101(405), 223-256
, 2021
Introduc on Controlling the money market interest rates has emerged as the top func on of the cen...
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Introduc on Controlling the money market interest rates has emerged as the top func on of the central bank in most economies around the world. Despite the generalised use of monetary instruments, the interac on with the real economy is intricate and mul faceted. The monetary policy does not act through a single transmission channel. The transmission channels are many and their links with the real economy are extremely complex. Structural and economic reforms and subsequent transi ons to new policy regimes in many emerging economies have made the analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms into sharp focus. Monetary policy decisions affect the general economic performance by influencing the aggregate demand func oning through the money and capital markets. There is a general consensus that monetary policy affects the real economy at least in the short run and monetary policy decisions are generally transmi ed to the real sector through four main channels-interest rate, credit, exchange rate and asset price channels. The tradi onal monetary transmission mechanism is the interest rate channels that affect the costs of borrowing, levels of physical investment, and aggregate demand. Further, the fric ons in the credit markets caused by the monetary transmission through interest rate also affect the aggregate demand. Other channels that transmit monetary policy changes into the economy are the credit, asset price and exchange rate mechanisms. In essence, the between monetary policy and aggregate demand is through some transmission mechanism through which monetary shock propagates to the real economy. The transmission mechanisms differ from one country to another depending upon their legal and financial structures.
Social Capital and Life Satisfaction: A Panel Data Analysis of the Moderation Effects of Trust and Sociability on Income and Relative Comparison in the Relationship between Money and Happiness in India
Indian Journal of Economics, Special Centennial Issue, 100(397), 283-307
, 2019
This paper empirically examines the role of social capital in terms of trust and sociability in e...
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This paper empirically examines the role of social capital in terms of trust and sociability in explaining the income-happiness relationship in India using the World Value Survey data for the period 1990-2014. The estimated cross-section and panel data results show that the direct effect of social capital on life satisfaction is insignificant relative to the effect of relative income and rank income in India. At the individual level, the estimated indirect effect of social capital, operating through the interaction of social capital with both absolute and relative incomes, reveals that social capital moderates the negative impact of reference income on life satisfaction. At the aggregate state level, social capital incompletely moderates the importance of material well-being on subjective well-being. In developing and less developed states, social capital has no direct effect but has some indirect effect on life satisfaction. In developed states, there is no moderating effect of social capital on life satisfaction is absent. Although the moderation effect of social capital on happiness is not complete, still material well-being significantly influences life satisfaction in India, irrespective of the time frame and alternative measures of subjective well-being. The scarcity of interpersonal trust and low quality of sociability are not proximate to the level of wellbeing in India and the concern for materialism still dominates the Indians interest in money.
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Social capital is a stronger determinant of happiness changes than economic growth, resolving endogeneity concerns in the income-happiness relationship.
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The Effect of Income Inequality on Happiness Inequality in India: A Recentered Influence Function Regression Estimation and Life Satisfaction Inequality Decomposition
Indian Journal of Human Development, 14(2), 161-181
, 2020
It is now an accepted stylised fact that increase in happiness level in any country is not commen...
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It is now an accepted stylised fact that increase in happiness level in any country is not commensurate with growth in income, a puzzle known as Easterlin Paradox. This paper analyses the income-happiness relationship in India and tries to explain the flat happiness response to income change in terms of rising income inequality. Income growth propels inequality and so also inequality in well-being. Empirically the effects of income inequality, absolute income, relative income, rank position and social capital indices are analysed using World Value Survey data for 12 states of India over 24 years from 1990 to 2014. As the variation in the 10-point scale measure of life satisfaction level is narrow, an recentered influence function (RIF) regression of variance and Gini of life satisfaction are estimated. The life satisfaction inequality is decomposed into composition and coefficients effects using Blinder-Oaxaca (B-O) decomposition method. The estimated RIF coefficients reveal significant effects on life satisfaction inequality of various income measures and social capital indices. The B-O decomposition shows that the functional relationship between material aspirations and life satisfaction, contribute significantly to rising life satisfaction inequality relative to changes over time in happiness influencing factors. Reducing income inequality and improving trust, sociability, health, education and employment over time and space could reduce life satisfaction inequality and improve happiness level in India.
A Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach to Inflation Forecasting in India
Review of Economics and Econometrics Studies, 1(1), 53-75
, 2022
Forecasting inflation is the key but challenging task for the monetary authority that aims to sta...
more
Forecasting inflation is the key but challenging task for the monetary authority that aims to stabilise price levels conducive to sustained economic growth. The standard autoregressive models overly depend on inter-temporal macro variables and their lags rendering inaccurate estimation and poor forecast accuracy. The Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) estimation allows more endogenous variables and prior information and enables more accurate inflation forecasts. This paper forecasts inflation over short horizons (up to 6 quarters ahead) using the quarterly data from Q2-1996 to Q1-2019 data applying the BVAR method with rolling and expanding window forecast strategies. The best prior is selected by comparing the out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Two BVAR models that describe the important dynamics and interactions between the determinants of inflation are estimated. The BVAR model is compared with other benchmark models. The BVAR inflation forecasting outperforms the benchmark univariate and VAR models. The fan charts for modelling inflation through the Bayesian VAR model show that the model delivers a decent performance and can be used to forecast inflation for short horizons.
The Effect of FDI on Domestic Investment and Economic Growth: Vector Autoregression Estimation of Causal Effects
International Journal of Banking, Risk and Insurance, 10(2), 49-61
, 2022
There is evidence that foreign direct investment promotes growth in developing economies. At the ...
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There is evidence that foreign direct investment promotes growth in developing economies. At the same time, economic development attracts FDI. Further, FDI inflows may induce investment by national investors. To analyse the effect of FDI inflows on economic growth and domestic investment in developing countries, this paper has applied the vector autoregressive model for five Asian countries-India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand-for the period 1980-2020. In the VAR framework, the relationship between GDP, FDI, exports, infrastructure, and population growth are estimated endogenously by taking two-period lags of each of these variables. The estimated VAR results show that there is a positive impact of FDI on growth in these economies, except Pakistan, and the infrastructure facility is an important factor for attracting FDI. The impact of FDI inflows on domestic investment in India is significantly positive, with a more-than-twofold increase in investment by the national investors.
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Positive effect of FDI on GDP growth in five South Asian countries shows FDI is more beneficial in open economies.
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External Debt and Economic Growth in India: Error Correction Model Estimation of the Causal Relationship
International Journal of Financial Management, 12(2), 65-71
, 2022
External debt is essential for economic growth; however, high levels of public debt adversely aff...
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External debt is essential for economic growth; however, high levels of public debt adversely affect growth via debt overhang, crowding-out of domestic private investment, and constraining countercyclical fiscal policy. This paper estimates the causal relationship between external public debt and economic growth in India, along with other macroeconomic variables, using annual time series data for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020, and applying the error correction mechanism estimation method. The debt burden is segmented into two parts-external debt stock and external debt service-and are measured as the percentage share to external debt to GDP and percentage share of total external debt service to total foreign exchange earnings, respectively. The estimated results show a significant positive impact of external debt stock on economic growth in the long run. There is no evidence of a debt overhang problem, but evidence of external debt service potentially affects growth by crowding out private investment. The effect of debt stock is less noteworthy, as the negative effect of debt service exceeds the positive debt stock effect. The adverse effect of debt service, both in the long and short run, is significant. The short-run disequilibrium is corrected at a reasonably good speed, providing the sanguinity of the external public debt in India.
SOCIAL ASSISTANCE AND WELFARE IN INDIA: PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF INDIRA GANDHI NATIONAL OLD AGE PENSION SCHEME ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
Journal of Strategic Human Resource Management, 11( 2), 9-17
, 2022
Women, especially in old age, are vulnerable to poverty and poor health. The social assistance, s...
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Women, especially in old age, are vulnerable to poverty and poor health. The social assistance, such as women's old-age pension, provided by the government helps households with elderly women improve household well-being by increasing household consumption expenditure and reducing household poverty. This paper analyses the effects of the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS), on the well-being of households with elderly women in India, using the 2011-12 India Human Development Survey-II data and applying the non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The effect of pension amount received under IGNOAPS on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure is estimated. The IGNOAPS increases household monthly per capita consumption expenditure on food items, education, and health by 8%, and reduces household poverty. As the programme involves unconditional cash transfers to the targeted elderly women, the entire household derives the larger benefits in terms of increased consumption. Thus, the IGNOAPS is a welfare-improving and poverty-reducing social assistance programme.
Effects of Environmental Pollution on Helth Expenditure
Indian Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(1), 9-18
, 2022
Increasing air pollution and the consequent degradation of environmental quality across the world...
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Increasing air pollution and the consequent degradation of environmental quality across the world is posing serious challenges to healthy living, not only through the increasing threat of global warming but also due to increased mortality and morbidity. This paper examines the short-and long-run dynamic relationship between economic growth, air pollution, and public health expenditure in 18 states of India during the period 2007 to 2021, applying panel unit root test, cointegration test, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation method. The ARDL model estimates the long-run dynamic interaction between the variables and distinguishes the short-and long-run effects. The panel ARDL estimates show that GSDP and air pollution have a significant positive long-run effect on public health expenditure in the states of India. The impact of carbon emissions on health expenditure is higher than the effect of GSDP. The much-desired economic growth comes at the cost of environmental degradation that increases the risk of pollution-induced health diseases including mortality, ultimately rising the public healthcare expenditure.
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In 2019, 21 out of the world's 30 most polluted cities were in India, with Delhi leading in respiratory particulate matter.
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